Bitcoin’s price dropped 3.07% to $95,086 on February 21, 2025, amid market turbulence triggered by a $1.4 billion security breach at Bybit. The incident, which targeted the exchange’s Ethereum cold wallet, sent shockwaves through the crypto market, amplifying existing technical weaknesses and testing investor confidence. While Bybit confirmed that customer funds were not compromised, the fallout intensified bearish sentiment across digital assets—especially Bitcoin, which struggled to defend the critical $95,000 support level.
Market Reaction to Bybit Security Incident
In the 24 hours following the hack, Bitcoin fluctuated between $95,086 and $99,504, reflecting heightened volatility and uncertainty. Despite a daily trading volume of $45.55 billion, market capitalization remained steady at $1.88 trillion—indicating a balance between panic-driven sell-offs and opportunistic buying from long-term investors.
The timing of the breach proved particularly damaging. Bitcoin had already been facing resistance near $100,000, and the sudden security scare eroded bullish momentum. Traders closely monitored price action around key psychological and technical levels, with attention focused on whether BTC could stabilize above $95,000 or would break down toward lower support zones.
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Technical Indicators Signal Caution
Market analysts reviewed multiple technical indicators to assess Bitcoin’s near-term direction. The results painted a mixed but predominantly cautious picture:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 44, the RSI sits just below neutral territory, suggesting weakening bullish momentum without yet entering oversold conditions.
- Stochastic Oscillator: Reading at 52, it indicates indecision in the market.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Despite being in negative territory (-887), the MACD generated a rare buy signal, hinting at potential reversal momentum if supported by volume.
- Momentum Indicator: At -180, it reflects ongoing downward pressure.
- Awesome Oscillator: Deep in the red at -3,288, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
- Commodity Channel Index (CCI): Slight bearish tilt at -25.
- Average Directional Index (ADX): At 32, it signals a developing trend—but direction remains unclear.
These readings collectively suggest that while short-term momentum favors sellers, there are early signs of potential stabilization if buying pressure returns.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Bitcoin’s daily chart reveals a consolidation phase between $95,000 and $100,000. This range has formed a pattern of lower highs and lower lows—a classic sign of weakening bullish control. A decisive break above $100,000 would be required to restore confidence and reignite upward momentum.
Critical Zones:
- Support: $92,000–$94,000 emerges as a key rebound zone. A drop below $95,000 could accelerate selling toward this band.
- Immediate Resistance: $97,000–$98,500 must be reclaimed with strong volume to challenge the $100,000 barrier.
- Upper Resistance: $100,000–$102,000 remains a formidable ceiling.
On shorter timeframes, the 4-hour chart shows a sharp rejection at $99,500 followed by a steep decline to $95,086. Price briefly stabilized near $93,300 before recovering slightly—suggesting some buying interest at lower levels. However, high-volume red candles confirm persistent selling pressure.
The 1-hour chart reinforces a bearish bias with a lower high at $99,500 and weak defense of the $95,000 level. Traders are watching for either a breakdown below $94,500 or a convincing reclaim of $97,000+ with volume to determine the next directional move.
Moving Averages: Short-Term Bearish vs Long-Term Bullish
A closer look at moving averages reveals a split between short-term and long-term outlooks:
Short-Term MAs (Bearish):
- All exponential moving averages (EMA 10, 20, 30, 50) and simple moving averages (SMA 10, 20, 30, 50) are positioned above current price levels—between $96,749 and $97,906—acting as dynamic resistance.
- This configuration confirms near-term selling pressure and limits upside potential unless bulls generate strong upward momentum.
Long-Term MAs (Bullish):
- EMA 100 at $94,029
- EMA 200 at $85,348
- SMA 200 at $80,929
These longer-term averages remain well below current price and continue to slope upward—signaling underlying strength and long-term accumulation. They serve as foundational support levels that could attract buyers in deeper pullbacks.
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Bull vs Bear Outlook: What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Bull Case: Reclaiming Momentum
For bulls to regain control, Bitcoin must sustain prices above $95,086 and break through immediate resistance at $97,000–$98,500 with strong volume. A confirmed close above $98,500 could invalidate the lower-high structure and open the door to retesting $100,000.
Key catalysts for a bullish reversal include:
- Positive macroeconomic data (e.g., softer inflation reports)
- Renewed institutional inflows
- Resolution of market fears post-hack
- Confirmation from MACD and RSI turning upward
With long-term moving averages providing structural support and on-chain metrics showing healthy accumulation trends among large holders (whales), the foundation for a recovery remains intact.
Bear Case: Further Downside Likely
Bearish forces currently dominate due to:
- Dominant sell signals from short-term moving averages
- High-volume red candles indicating panic selling
- Failure to reclaim $99,500
- Lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart
A breakdown below $95,086 risks accelerating losses toward the $92,000–$93,300 support zone. If selling pressure intensifies and volume surges on down moves, a temporary dip toward $88,000 cannot be ruled out—especially if broader market sentiment deteriorates further.
Until Bitcoin clears $97,000 with conviction, the path of least resistance remains downward amid risk-off behavior following the Bybit incident.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Did the Bybit hack affect user funds?
A: No. Bybit confirmed that customer assets were fully protected and no user funds were compromised during the breach of its cold wallet.
Q: Is Bitcoin still in a bull market?
A: While long-term fundamentals remain strong—such as ETF inflows and limited supply—the short-term trend is consolidative and slightly bearish due to technical weakness and recent negative catalysts.
Q: What happens if Bitcoin breaks below $95,086?
A: A confirmed breakdown could trigger further selling toward $92,000–$93,333 support. Traders should watch volume and candlestick patterns for confirmation.
Q: Can Bitcoin recover to $115K or higher in 2025?
A: Yes—many analysts still project new all-time highs later in 2025 if macro conditions improve and institutional demand resumes. However, short-term volatility is expected.
Q: How do oscillators help predict Bitcoin’s next move?
A: Tools like RSI, MACD, and Stochastic help identify overbought/oversold conditions and trend strength. Currently, they suggest caution but also hint at possible reversal opportunities if buying returns.
Q: Should I buy Bitcoin during this dip?
A: It depends on your strategy. Long-term investors may view this as an accumulation opportunity near major support levels. Short-term traders should wait for confirmation of reversal patterns before entering.
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Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s journey through the $95K–$100K zone remains pivotal. The Bybit hack introduced an external shock that amplified pre-existing technical fragility. While long-term indicators—including on-chain data and moving averages—suggest resilience ahead, short-term traders must navigate increased volatility and bearish momentum.
Success hinges on whether bulls can defend $95,086 and push toward $97K+ with volume. Until then, risk management should be prioritized. Confirmations via price action and trading volume will be essential before any new positions are taken.
As always in crypto markets, news events can shift sentiment rapidly—but strong technical foundations suggest this pullback may be temporary rather than terminal.
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