The world of digital assets has evolved dramatically since Bitcoin’s inception in 2009. What began as a niche technological experiment is now a globally recognized asset class, drawing institutional capital and regulatory attention alike. According to Grayscale Research, current market indicators suggest we are still in the middle phase of a growing Bitcoin bull cycle, with potential for continued momentum into 2025 and beyond.
While past performance doesn't guarantee future results, historical patterns—combined with on-chain analytics and macro developments—offer valuable insights for investors navigating this dynamic landscape.
The Four-Year Cycle: Still Relevant?
Historically, cryptocurrency valuations have followed a rough four-year cycle, largely influenced by Bitcoin’s halving events, which reduce block rewards and tighten supply growth. These cycles typically consist of accumulation phases, rapid price appreciation (bull markets), and eventual corrections (bear markets).
However, Grayscale argues that as the ecosystem matures—driven by broader adoption, regulatory progress, and financial product innovation—this rigid cyclical model may begin to shift or even fade over time.
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That said, current data aligns closely with the mid-cycle phase of previous bull runs. Price momentum remains strong but hasn't reached the extreme levels historically associated with market peaks. This suggests room for further upside—if supported by fundamental drivers like real-world adoption and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
Historical Price Trends: A Pattern of Growth
Bitcoin has completed several major price cycles since its early days:
- 2013 Cycle: Less than one year long, price surged over 500x from cycle low.
- 2017 Cycle: Lasted about two years; price rose more than 100x from the 2015 bottom.
- 2021 Cycle: Spanned nearly three years, delivering roughly a 20x return from the 2018 low.
Each cycle had unique catalysts—from early miner dominance to retail FOMO and institutional entry—but all shared a common trait: extended periods of upward momentum following halving events.
The current cycle began after Bitcoin hit a post-2021 peak low of around $16,000 in November 2022. As of 2025, it has been active for over two years, with Bitcoin achieving approximately a 6x return so far. While significant, this lags behind prior cycles' total gains, suggesting the rally may still have room to run.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Room for Growth
To assess the maturity of the current bull market, analysts turn to on-chain metrics—data derived directly from the blockchain that reveal investor behavior, supply dynamics, and network health.
MVRV Ratio: Measuring Market Value vs. Realized Cost
One key indicator is the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s current market cap to its realized cap—the sum of all coins valued at their last on-chain transaction price.
- An MVRV above 3.5–4.0 has historically signaled market tops.
- Today, the MVRV stands at 2.6, well below previous peak thresholds.
This implies that while investors are profitable overall, widespread euphoria hasn’t taken hold yet. The market isn’t showing signs of overheating—supporting the view that the bull run could extend further.
HODL Waves: Tracking Long-Term Holder Behavior
Another useful framework is HODL Waves, which measures how long Bitcoin has remained dormant in wallets. A surge in short-term holder activity often precedes major price moves.
Grayscale focuses on the percentage of Bitcoin’s circulating supply that has moved on-chain within the past year:
- In past cycles, this figure exceeded 60% near market peaks.
- Currently, it sits around 54%, indicating substantial supply may still be poised to re-enter circulation.
This gap suggests ongoing market participation and potential for additional upward pressure as more holders take profits or rebalance portfolios.
Miner Activity: Clues from Network Participants
Bitcoin miners play a crucial role in securing the network—and their behavior can offer clues about market sentiment.
The MCTC ratio (Miner Cap to Total Cost) tracks the value of all Bitcoin held by miners compared to the cumulative cost of acquiring those coins via block rewards and fees.
- Historically, when MCTC surpassed 10x, prices soon topped out.
- Presently, the ratio is around 6x, suggesting miners are in profit but haven’t begun large-scale selling.
This supports the idea that we’re still in a healthy mid-cycle phase, where miner confidence remains strong and supply pressure is contained.
Beyond Bitcoin: Broader Crypto Market Signals
While Bitcoin sets the tone for the market, signals from other areas provide additional context.
Altcoin Dominance and Speculative Activity
Bitcoin dominance—the share of total crypto market cap held by BTC—tended to peak about two years into prior bull markets before declining as capital rotated into altcoins.
In 2025, we’re seeing a similar pattern: Bitcoin dominance is beginning to fall, indicating growing interest in alternative cryptocurrencies.
👉 See how altcoin momentum could shape the next phase of the bull market.
Additionally, funding rates—the cost of holding leveraged long positions in perpetual futures—remain positive across major altcoins. While elevated, they haven’t reached extremes seen during prior euphoric phases.
However, open interest (OI) in altcoin perpetual contracts recently hit nearly **$54 billion** across top exchanges—only to drop by ~$10 billion after a major liquidation event. Even post-correction, OI remains high, signaling robust speculative positioning.
This mix—moderate funding rates with high open interest—points to active trading without full-blown mania, consistent with a developing bull market rather than a late-stage blow-off top.
Structural Shifts Reshaping the Outlook
Several fundamental changes distinguish today’s environment from past cycles:
- Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs have brought billions in institutional inflows—over $36.7 billion net inflow since approval.
- Regulatory clarity appears closer with shifts in U.S. policy following recent elections.
- Digital assets are increasingly integrated into traditional investment portfolios.
These developments suggest that crypto is transitioning from a speculative frontier to a mainstream financial asset, potentially breaking free from rigid four-year cycles driven solely by supply shocks.
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
Q: Is the four-year Bitcoin cycle still valid?
A: While historically accurate, structural changes like ETF approvals and macro adoption may weaken its predictive power. The cycle framework remains useful but should be combined with real-time data.
Q: What does MVRV tell us about market timing?
A: MVRV helps identify overvalued markets. With current levels at 2.6—below the typical 4.0+ peak threshold—the signal suggests the rally isn’t over yet.
Q: How do miner behaviors influence price?
A: Miners act as natural sellers when profits accumulate. With MCTC at 6x (below historical peak levels), selling pressure remains manageable.
Q: Are altcoins entering a speculative bubble?
A: High open interest shows strong speculation, but moderate funding rates suggest leverage isn’t yet excessive. Caution is warranted, but not panic.
Q: Can the bull run last beyond 2025?
A: Yes—if supported by continued adoption, regulatory stability, and macro tailwinds like monetary easing or inflation concerns.
Q: Should I rely only on on-chain data for investment decisions?
A: On-chain metrics are powerful tools, but should be combined with macroeconomic analysis and risk management strategies for balanced decision-making.
Final Thoughts: A Maturing Market with Momentum
Grayscale Research concludes that while no one can predict the future with certainty, today’s combination of on-chain indicators, market structure improvements, and fundamental adoption trends points to a bull market still in progress.
Bitcoin’s price performance, though impressive, hasn’t matched prior cycles in magnitude. Key metrics like MVRV and HODL Waves remain below peak levels. Meanwhile, structural shifts—including ETPs and regulatory progress—are laying the foundation for sustained growth.
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For investors, this means opportunities may still lie ahead—but vigilance is essential. Monitoring both technical signals and macro developments will be key to navigating what could be one of crypto’s most mature and impactful bull runs yet.
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