Avalanche (AVAX), a leading smart contract Layer-1 blockchain, is currently trading at $28.44, showing strong upward momentum. This rally aligns with earlier market analysis predicting a rebound in the broader crypto space. But what’s driving this surge—and more importantly, can it last?
In this deep dive, we’ll unpack the on-chain data and technical indicators that suggest AVAX may be poised for further gains. From organic demand signals to key support levels and buying pressure, the evidence paints a compelling picture of sustained bullish potential.
Organic Demand, Not FOMO, Is Fueling AVAX Growth
While many altcoins in the top 20 by market cap have seen price rebounds over the past 24 hours, not all are backed by genuine demand. Many are experiencing fear-of-missing-out (FOMO)-driven rallies—short-lived spikes often triggered by news events rather than long-term confidence.
Take Solana (SOL), for example. Its recent price surge was closely tied to news of VanEck filing for a Solana ETF in the U.S. While significant, such developments often attract speculative buyers looking to capitalize quickly, increasing volatility and risk of sharp corrections.
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Avalanche tells a different story. According to on-chain analytics platforms Santiment and IntoTheBlock, AVAX’s price movement is supported by organic growth in user engagement and network trust—not speculative hype.
One key metric is social volume, which measures the level of online discussion around a cryptocurrency. Santiment data shows that Avalanche’s social volume has reached its highest level since June 27 and remains strong. This uptick isn’t tied to a single news event but reflects growing organic interest across forums, social media, and developer communities.
This kind of sustained attention typically indicates real adoption—users researching wallets, dApps, staking opportunities, and ecosystem updates—not just traders chasing pumps.
If this trend continues, AVAX could avoid the typical post-rally correction seen in FOMO-driven assets. Instead, it may experience a more stable and lasting price increase beyond the current 6.32% gain recorded over the past day.
Historically, AVAX reached $36.80 on June 6, suggesting there’s room for upward movement if bullish momentum holds.
On-Chain Data Reveals Strong Support Zones
Beyond social sentiment, on-chain supply dynamics provide another layer of confirmation for AVAX’s resilience.
Using the In/Out of Money (IOMAP) indicator from IntoTheBlock, we can identify where investors acquired AVAX and whether they’re currently in profit or loss. This helps pinpoint critical support and resistance zones.
The data reveals:
- 4,100 addresses bought 2.62 million AVAX at an average price of $28.54
- 53,540 addresses purchased 1.21 million AVAX at a weighted average of $27.29
Here’s why this matters: Those who bought near $28.54 are currently at breakeven or slightly underwater. They’re less likely to sell unless prices rise further. In contrast, investors who entered at $27.29 are already in profit—giving them “dry powder” to reinvest or hold confidently.
This creates a natural support floor around $27.30, while the $28.54 level becomes a psychological resistance zone. With strong holder conviction below current prices, a breakout above $28.54 becomes increasingly likely.
When major holder groups are in profit and show low sell pressure, it often precedes sustained price appreciation—exactly the setup AVAX appears to be in now.
Technical Analysis Confirms Bullish Momentum
The daily chart for AVAX/USD reinforces the optimistic outlook from on-chain data.
Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels
AVAX is approaching a key Fibonacci retracement level at $28.54, corresponding to the 0.238 ratio—a zone that often acts as a springboard for further gains if breached.
Fibonacci levels help traders identify potential reversal or continuation points based on historical price action. With AVAX consolidating near this level, a breakout could trigger accelerated buying toward the next targets.
Chaikin Money Flow Signals Buying Pressure
Another critical indicator is the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which measures the balance between buying and selling pressure over time.
As of this analysis, CMF has moved out of negative territory into positive—signaling that institutional and retail buyers are stepping in.
- A CMF above 0.04 confirms sustained buying pressure
- A move toward 0.20 would suggest the asset is nearing overbought conditions
Currently, CMF is rising but remains well below overbought levels—indicating room for further upside without immediate risk of correction.
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AVAX Price Forecast: Targets and Risk Scenarios
Based on current indicators, here’s a breakdown of potential price trajectories:
Bullish Outlook
- **First target: $31.39** – Likely if AVAX breaks above $28.54 with strong volume
- Second target: $36.01 – Aligns with previous highs and Fibonacci extensions
A sustained move above $31 could attract new capital from trend-following traders and funds tracking momentum plays.
Bearish Scenarios
If demand weakens or broader market conditions shift:
- A drop below $27.30** could test support at **$25.59
- In a worst-case scenario (e.g., macro downturn or negative news), AVAX might fall to $23.92
However, given the current strength in on-chain metrics and holder behavior, such declines appear less probable unless external shocks occur.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Is Avalanche (AVAX) a good long-term investment?
Yes, for investors seeking exposure to high-performance Layer-1 blockchains. Avalanche offers fast transaction speeds, low fees, and growing adoption in DeFi and enterprise use cases—key fundamentals supporting long-term value.
What factors could cause AVAX to drop?
Potential risks include broader market downturns, regulatory scrutiny, technical failures, or increased competition from other L1s like Solana or Ethereum Layer-2s.
How does social volume affect AVAX price?
High social volume often precedes price movements. When discussions are organic—not driven by hype—it reflects real interest in the ecosystem, which can translate into sustained demand.
What is the significance of the $28.54 resistance level?
This level represents the average entry price for thousands of investors. Breaking above it signals strong bullish conviction and could trigger algorithmic buying from trading bots and funds.
Can AVAX reach $36 again in 2025?
Based on current momentum and historical patterns, reaching $36 is achievable if AVAX maintains positive on-chain trends and the overall crypto market remains bullish.
Where should I store AVAX securely?
Use non-custodial wallets like Ledger, Trezor, or Trust Wallet for maximum security. Always enable two-factor authentication and avoid sharing private keys.
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Final Thoughts: AVAX Is Building Sustainable Momentum
Unlike many altcoins riding speculative waves, Avalanche’s current rally is underpinned by organic demand, strong on-chain fundamentals, and favorable technical structure.
With key support established near $27.30, growing social engagement, and rising buying pressure confirmed by CMF, AVAX is well-positioned for a breakout toward $31–$36 if momentum holds.
For investors and traders alike, monitoring these indicators—social volume, IOMAP data, Fibonacci levels, and CMF trends—will be crucial in navigating AVAX’s next move.
Whether you're bullish for the short term or building a long-term position, Avalanche continues to prove it's more than just another altcoin—it's a scalable blockchain with real-world utility and growing investor confidence.
Core Keywords: Avalanche (AVAX), AVAX price prediction, Layer-1 blockchain, on-chain data, social volume, Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), IOMAP analysis, crypto technical analysis