The final days of March delivered a grim signal for Bitcoin (BTC) investors as the asset closed with a bearish weekly candlestick, reinforcing concerns of further downside in April and throughout 2025. After a sharp 30% decline from its all-time high of $109,588 reached on January 20, Bitcoin briefly rallied from a March 11 low of $76,600. However, the recovery failed to break key resistance levels, ultimately collapsing under selling pressure and invalidating any sustained bullish momentum.
Now, Bitcoin stands at a critical technical juncture—its price hovers near crucial support, with technical indicators flashing red across multiple timeframes. The question on every trader’s mind: will BTC find strength to reverse course, or is a drop toward $70,000—and potentially lower—inevitable?
A Bearish Weekly Candlestick Confirms Downtrend
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin formed a large bearish engulfing candlestick pattern during the week ending March 31. This type of formation typically signals strong seller dominance after a short-lived rally, especially when it follows a significant price drop.
The rally that began on March 11 appeared promising at first, lifting BTC over 15% from its $76,600 low. But the rebound stalled precisely at the descending resistance trend line—a long-term bearish barrier that has rejected price advances since early 2024. The failure to break above this level turned the temporary relief into a classic "bear trap," luring in buyers before reversing sharply.
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This bearish engulfing candle effectively erased most of the prior week’s gains, confirming that sellers remain in control. With momentum now tilting downward, the path of least resistance points toward new lows in the coming weeks.
Technical Indicators Signal Continued Downside
Supporting this bearish outlook are key technical indicators showing weakening momentum:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below 50 on the weekly chart, indicating that selling pressure outweighs buying interest.
- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has generated a bearish crossover—where the MACD line crosses below the signal line—adding further confirmation of downward momentum.
If the current trend persists, the next major support zone lies around $69,000, derived from the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the recent corrective rise. This level aligns with historical congestion and could act as a temporary floor—though not necessarily a long-term bottom.
Breakdown Confirmed on Daily Chart
Zooming into the daily timeframe reveals a more granular view of Bitcoin’s failed recovery. From March 13 to late March, BTC advanced within an ascending parallel channel—a textbook corrective pattern suggesting the move was merely a pullback within a larger downtrend.
On March 28, price action broke down below this channel and the critical $81,160 support level. This breakdown triggered a cascade of selling, generating multiple red daily candles and reinforcing bearish sentiment.
Currently, Bitcoin trades just above its yearly low of $76,600. A decisive close below this level would open the door to deeper losses, potentially accelerating the move toward $69,000 or lower.
Momentum Indicators Echo Weekly Signals
Just like on the weekly chart, daily technicals are firmly in bearish territory:
- RSI remains below 50, signaling ongoing weakness.
- MACD is negative and has completed a bearish crossover, suggesting downward momentum is gaining strength.
With both weekly and daily indicators aligned, the probability of a continued downtrend increases significantly. The confluence of price structure, trend lines, and momentum tools paints a cohesive picture: Bitcoin is in a correction phase with substantial downside risk.
Elliott Wave Analysis: A Five-Wave Decline Underway?
From an Elliott Wave perspective, Bitcoin may have completed a full five-wave bullish cycle that began in December 2022. This larger impulse wave took BTC from approximately $16,000 to its peak near $110,000.
Now, market analysts suggest a new five-wave downward correction has begun. Based on current counts:
- Wave one down: Completed from $109,588 to $76,600.
- Wave two (a corrective bounce): Completed with the March 11–28 rally.
- Wave three (expected to be the strongest leg down): Likely now underway.
Historically, wave three in Elliott Wave theory is often the most powerful and extended leg of a trend. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could see accelerated declines in April and May.
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A preliminary target for the end of this corrective phase lies between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the entire 2022–2024 bull run—translating to a range between $51,378 and $62,437. While that may not be reached immediately, it underscores the depth of potential correction ahead.
Short-Term Relief Possible, But Trend Remains Bearish
Despite the overwhelming bearish bias on higher timeframes, short-term technicals suggest a minor relief rally could still occur. On the 2-hour chart, Bitcoin appears to have completed a five-wave decline from its March high.
Additionally:
- Bullish divergences are emerging on both RSI and MACD.
- A potential double-bottom pattern has formed around $76,600.
These patterns often precede counter-trend rallies. If confirmed, Bitcoin could retest resistance in the $84,200–$85,100 range before resuming its downward trajectory.
However, traders should treat any such rally as an opportunity to exit long positions or establish new shorts—not as a signal of trend reversal.
What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin in 2025?
While short-term fluctuations will continue to dominate headlines, the broader technical picture for 2025 remains bearish. Key factors supporting this outlook include:
- Failure to break long-term resistance.
- Bearish candlestick patterns on weekly and daily charts.
- Momentum indicators favoring sellers.
- Elliott Wave structure suggesting a deep correction is unfolding.
That said, markets are dynamic. A monthly close above $85,100—or better yet, above $90,000—could invalidate the current bearish thesis and spark renewed bullish momentum.
Until then, caution is warranted.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is Bitcoin’s March weekly close considered bearish?
A: The weekly candlestick was a bearish engulfing pattern that reversed gains from the prior week’s relief rally. It confirmed seller dominance and failed to break key resistance, signaling continuation of the downtrend.
Q: What is the next major support level for Bitcoin?
A: The next significant support lies near **$69,000**, based on Fibonacci extensions and historical price zones. A break below $76,600 could accelerate momentum toward this level.
Q: Can Bitcoin still rebound in April 2025?
A: A short-term rebound is possible—potentially toward $84,200–$85,100—but current technicals suggest any rally may be corrective within a larger downtrend.
Q: How reliable is Elliott Wave analysis for Bitcoin?
A: Elliott Wave provides a structured way to interpret market psychology and trend cycles. While subjective at times, it has historically offered valuable insights during major Bitcoin tops and bottoms.
Q: What would reverse the current bearish outlook?
A: A sustained close above $85,100—or ideally above $90,000—could invalidate short-term bearish patterns and reignite bullish momentum.
Q: Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
A: While dips can present buying opportunities, current indicators suggest further downside risk. Investors should wait for confirmation of trend reversal—such as bullish candlestick patterns and RSI/MACD turnarounds—before entering new positions.
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