Stellar (XLM) is showing promising signs of a potential bullish breakout as its price consolidates within a well-defined channel pattern and its total value locked (TVL) crosses the $62 million mark. With growing on-chain activity and favorable technical indicators, investors are closely watching whether XLM can sustain momentum toward a key price target of $0.74.
This article explores the latest developments in the Stellar ecosystem, analyzes the current technical outlook, and evaluates the factors driving renewed interest in XLM—offering a comprehensive view for traders and long-term holders alike.
Stellar Price Consolidates in Ascending Channel
Stellar’s price has been trading within an ascending channel since late November, forming a series of higher lows and higher highs. This pattern suggests underlying bullish sentiment, with each pullback finding support at progressively higher levels. The structure is defined by two parallel trendlines: one connecting the swing lows and another tracing the swing highs.
Currently, XLM is retesting the lower boundary of this channel near $0.284—the same level that aligns with its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). This confluence of technical support increases the significance of this zone. A successful bounce from here strengthens the case for a breakout.
As of Thursday, XLM was trading around $0.343, reflecting a steady recovery from recent dips. The immediate resistance lies at approximately $0.416—the upper boundary of the channel. A decisive close above this level could trigger a powerful upward move.
👉 Discover how market momentum could accelerate XLM’s next breakout phase.
Breakout Target Points to 77% Upside Potential
Technical analysis suggests that if Stellar breaks out of its channel with strong volume and closes above $0.416, the next logical target would be $0.740. This projection is derived by measuring the vertical distance between the first daily high and low at the start of the channel formation and projecting it upward from the breakout point.
A move to $0.74 represents an approximate 77% increase from current levels, signaling substantial upside potential for early entrants. Such targets are commonly observed in technical trading patterns, especially when supported by improving market structure and on-chain fundamentals.
For sustained bullish momentum, confirmation will be key. Traders should look for:
- A daily candle closing above $0.416
- Rising trading volume during the breakout
- Confirmation from momentum indicators
Without these signals, any spike above resistance may prove temporary.
RSI Shows Early Signs of Bullish Momentum
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart currently reads around 45—an improvement from last week’s dip into oversold territory near 30. This rebound indicates that selling pressure has eased and buying interest is returning.
More importantly, RSI needs to rise above the neutral 50 level to confirm sustained bullish momentum. A move beyond 50 would suggest that buyers are gaining control and could pave the way for further gains toward the $0.74 target.
Until then, sideways price action or minor corrections should be expected as the market builds energy for the next directional move.
MACD Confirms Growing Bullish Sentiment
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator adds further weight to the bullish case for XLM. On the daily timeframe, the MACD line (blue) has crossed above the signal line (yellow), forming a bullish crossover—a classic sign of strengthening upward momentum.
Additionally, the histogram bars are rising above the zero line, turning increasingly green. This reflects growing positive momentum and increased buying activity in the market.
When combined with the ascending channel and rising TVL, the MACD signal enhances confidence in a potential breakout scenario.
Stellar’s TVL Jumps to $62 Million
One of the most compelling fundamental developments for Stellar recently has been the surge in total value locked (TVL). According to data from DeFiLlama, XLM’s TVL climbed from $53.57 million on February 9 to $61.84 million by mid-February—a rise of over 15% in just over a week.
This upward trend in TVL has been consistent since February 3, indicating growing user engagement across decentralized finance (DeFi) applications built on the Stellar network.
A rising TVL means more assets are being deposited into protocols on the Stellar blockchain—whether for lending, staking, or liquidity provision. This reflects increased trust in the platform’s infrastructure and growing utility within its ecosystem.
Higher TVL often correlates with increased demand for the native token (XLM), as users may need to hold or transact in XLM to interact with dApps. This dynamic can create organic buying pressure over time.
👉 Explore how rising DeFi adoption could fuel XLM’s next growth cycle.
Why Rising TVL Matters for XLM Investors
Total value locked is more than just a metric—it's a reflection of real economic activity within a blockchain ecosystem. For investors, rising TVL signals:
- Increased network usage: More users are interacting with Stellar-based applications.
- Improved ecosystem health: Developers are building, and capital is flowing in.
- Potential token demand: As more services launch, demand for XLM may rise for transactions and fees.
Stellar’s focus on fast, low-cost cross-border payments and financial inclusion makes it particularly attractive for emerging markets and fintech integrations. The recent TVL growth may be an early indicator that institutional and retail participants are beginning to recognize these advantages.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is Stellar (XLM)?
A: Stellar is an open-source blockchain network designed to enable fast, low-cost cross-border payments and asset transfers. Its native cryptocurrency is XLM, which facilitates transactions and helps prevent spam on the network.
Q: What does TVL mean for XLM?
A: Total Value Locked (TVL) measures the amount of assets deposited in DeFi protocols on the Stellar blockchain. A rising TVL indicates growing adoption, user confidence, and potential demand for XLM.
Q: What is the significance of the $0.416 resistance level?
A: $0.416 marks the upper boundary of Stellar’s current ascending channel pattern. A confirmed breakout above this level could trigger a rally toward $0.740, representing significant upside potential.
Q: Is Stellar a good long-term investment?
A: Stellar’s focus on financial inclusion, partnerships with payment providers, and growing DeFi ecosystem make it a compelling option for long-term investors who believe in blockchain-based remittance solutions.
Q: How reliable are technical targets like $0.74?
A: While no target is guaranteed, technical levels like $0.74 are derived from measurable chart patterns and historical behavior. They serve as useful reference points when combined with volume and momentum analysis.
Q: Where can I track XLM price and TVL data?
A: You can monitor real-time price movements and DeFi metrics such as TVL through platforms like DeFiLlama and major crypto exchanges.
Final Outlook: Momentum Building for XLM
Stellar is at an inflection point. Technically, it’s forming a strong bullish pattern with clear breakout potential. Fundamentally, rising TVL reflects increasing adoption and confidence in its DeFi ecosystem.
With key indicators like RSI and MACD turning positive and price holding above critical moving averages, XLM appears well-positioned for a potential rally—if it can clear $0.416 with conviction.
For traders and investors alike, now is the time to monitor volume trends, watch for breakout confirmation, and consider positioning ahead of what could be a significant move in 2025.
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