Bitcoin miners are navigating one of the most challenging phases in recent memory, with profitability hitting a 12-month low amid declining transaction fees and a cooling price environment. Despite this pressure on the network’s backbone, market structure remains bullish—setting the stage for a potential explosive breakout toward $146,000 or higher.
According to data from CryptoQuant, daily miner revenue dropped to just $34 million in June 2025, the lowest level since April 2024. This marks a steep decline driven by two critical factors: a 50% drop in transaction fees and a 15% decrease in Bitcoin’s market price. Together, these forces have compressed mining margins to levels not seen since mid-2022, raising concerns about operational sustainability across the mining sector.
Bitcoin miners just saw their worst payday in a year.
Daily revenue slipped to $34 million in June, the lowest since April.
Falling fees and Bitcoin’s price drop are crushing margins.
This downturn mirrors conditions observed during July 2022—a period marked by widespread miner capitulation and forced sell-offs. With electricity, hardware, and hosting costs continuing to rise, many mining operations now face difficult choices: either liquidate reserves to cover expenses or temporarily suspend operations to conserve capital.
Such stress at the infrastructure layer could introduce short-term downward pressure on price if large-scale miners begin offloading BTC holdings. However, historically, these moments of miner distress have often preceded major bullish reversals, as weaker players exit and the network recalibrates.
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Whale Activity Shows Divergent Sentiment
While miners struggle, investor behavior paints a more nuanced picture. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode reports mixed signals among Bitcoin whales—large holders whose actions often foreshadow broader market movements.
Smaller whales (1–10 BTC) have been actively redistributing their holdings, likely taking profits or rebalancing portfolios. In contrast, mid-sized whales (10–100 BTC) are quietly accumulating, signaling confidence in Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory. This divergence highlights uncertainty at the institutional and high-net-worth investor level.
The Accumulation Trend Score—a metric that tracks net inflows across wallet tiers—rose slightly to 0.57, up from 0.32, indicating renewed buying interest among intermediate-sized investors. While not yet a consensus move, this shift suggests that value is being recognized at current price levels.
Still, without coordinated accumulation across all whale segments, the path forward remains ambiguous in the near term. The lack of unified conviction means price action will likely remain range-bound until stronger catalysts emerge.
Bull Flag Formation Signals Imminent Breakout
Despite short-term headwinds, technical indicators point to a potentially explosive move ahead. Bitcoin has consolidated between $102,000 and $108,000 for several weeks, forming a classic bull flag pattern—a continuation formation that typically precedes strong upward momentum after a pause.
Analysts note that this setup resembles the pre-breakout phase seen in 2020, when Bitcoin surged approximately threefold within three months following a similar consolidation. Market strategist Cas Abbe highlighted key parallels between the two cycles, including:
- A bullish MACD crossover
- A range-bound consolidation followed by a decisive breakout
- A minor correction before the final leg upward
Abbe projects that if current momentum holds, Bitcoin could rally 50% to 80% by October 2025, potentially reaching $146,000 to $180,000 before the cycle peak. He emphasizes that this remains consistent with Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle—not an unprecedented "supercycle"—and warns of a significant drawdown expected after new highs are achieved.
Historically, such late-cycle rallies are fueled by increasing retail participation, spot ETF inflows, and growing macro acceptance—all of which are now in motion.
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Key Metrics to Watch
As the market approaches a pivotal decision point, several on-chain and technical indicators warrant close attention:
- Miner Revenue Trends: Sustained lows may trigger further sell pressure but could also set up a bottoming pattern.
- Transaction Fees: Recovery in fee income would ease pressure on miners and support network health.
- Whale Accumulation: Broadening participation across wallet tiers would confirm institutional confidence.
- MACD Momentum: A confirmed bullish crossover above zero would validate upward trend strength.
- Volume Surge: A breakout accompanied by high trading volume increases the likelihood of follow-through.
While resistance near **$109,000** remains firm for now, a decisive close above this level could unlock rapid upside toward $146,000—especially if macro conditions remain favorable and liquidity improves.
FAQs: Understanding Miner Stress and Market Outlook
Q: Why are Bitcoin miner profits falling?
A: Profits are under pressure due to declining transaction fees (down 50%) and a 15% drop in Bitcoin’s price. Combined with rising operational costs, this has squeezed margins significantly.
Q: Does low miner revenue affect Bitcoin’s security?
A: Prolonged low revenue can lead to miner shutdowns, temporarily reducing hash rate. However, Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment mechanism helps restore balance within days, maintaining long-term network security.
Q: What is a bull flag pattern?
A: It’s a technical chart formation where price consolidates in a narrow downward-sloping channel after a strong rally. A breakout from this pattern typically signals continuation of the prior uptrend.
Q: Can Bitcoin really reach $146,000?
A: Based on historical cycle patterns and current technical setup, analysts see $146,000 as a plausible target by late 2025—especially if momentum mirrors the 2020 bull run.
Q: Are whales buying or selling Bitcoin now?
A: Activity is mixed. Smaller whales (1–10 BTC) are selling, while mid-sized holders (10–100 BTC) are accumulating. This suggests selective confidence rather than broad conviction.
Q: Should I be worried about miner sell-offs?
A: Short-term pressure is possible if miners liquidate reserves. However, such events often create buying opportunities, as they tend to coincide with market bottoms before major rallies.
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Conclusion
Bitcoin stands at a crossroads. Miner profitability is at its weakest in over a year, and whale sentiment remains divided. Yet beneath the surface, powerful technical forces are aligning—a bull flag formation, cyclical momentum, and early accumulation by mid-tier investors all suggest that the next major move could be sharply upward.
While challenges persist at the network level, history shows that periods of miner stress often precede some of Bitcoin’s strongest rallies. As the market eyes a breakout above $109,000, all eyes will be on volume, whale activity, and on-chain fundamentals to confirm the next leg higher.
For investors, this moment offers both risk and opportunity. Staying informed, monitoring key indicators, and preparing for volatility will be essential as Bitcoin moves closer to its next potential all-time high.
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