Ethereum (ETH) has staged a powerful rebound, surging 21% from its recent low of $1,380 amid intense selling pressure. This rally began last Wednesday, sparked by significant geopolitical developments: former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China, which now faces a staggering 170% tariff. The news injected optimism into global markets, with Ethereum emerging as one of the top beneficiaries.
Despite this bullish momentum, ETH remains below key resistance levels, and its broader price structure continues to form a consolidation pattern. Markets are now watching closely to determine whether this rebound will evolve into a full reversal—or if it's merely a relief rally within ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.
Ethereum’s Technical Setup: A Symmetrical Triangle Formation
Renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently shared a technical chart on X, highlighting that Ethereum is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle on the hourly timeframe. This pattern typically precedes a significant breakout, and according to Martinez, an upside resolution could trigger a 17% price increase.
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Symmetrical triangles form when price volatility contracts between converging support and resistance lines, indicating market indecision. A decisive breakout—especially with strong volume—can unleash pent-up momentum in either direction. In Ethereum’s case, an upward break could propel the asset toward the psychologically significant $2,000 mark, a level that also aligns with strong technical resistance.
For traders, the key lies in confirmation. Until ETH clears the upper boundary of the triangle with conviction, the pattern remains neutral. A false breakout or breakdown could send prices back toward $1,500 or lower, particularly if broader risk sentiment sours.
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Key Resistance at $1,875: The Make-or-Break Level
While Ethereum briefly reached a fresh 4-hour high near $1,691—slightly above its previous peak—the asset must overcome a crucial resistance zone at **$1,875** to confirm a sustained reversal. This level aligns with both the 4-hour 200-day moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA), making it a critical confluence of technical and psychological significance.
Historically, these moving averages have acted as dynamic resistance during Ethereum’s recent downtrend. Only a decisive close above $1,875 would signal that bulls have regained control and could pave the way for a move back toward $2,000.
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However, failure to突破 (break through) this zone could result in another leg lower. A rejection at $1,875 might push ETH back toward $1,500—especially if macroeconomic headwinds intensify. With U.S.-China trade tensions still influencing global risk appetite, traders are proceeding with caution.
Macroeconomic Factors Still in Play
Ethereum’s price action doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Like equities and other risk assets, it remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic developments. The recent tariff announcement initially boosted market sentiment, but uncertainty lingers—particularly around inflation data, central bank policies, and geopolitical stability.
Some analysts argue that the worst of the downturn is already priced into Ethereum, suggesting that current valuations reflect bearish extremes. Others caution that the recent rally may simply be a temporary bounce within a larger bearish structure. This divergence in sentiment underscores a market at a crossroads—poised for either recovery or renewed selling pressure.
What Traders Should Watch Next
To navigate this critical juncture, traders should monitor several key indicators:
- Volume: A breakout accompanied by high trading volume increases the likelihood of a sustainable move.
- BTC Dominance: If Bitcoin begins to outperform, it could pull capital away from altcoins like Ethereum.
- On-chain Metrics: Rising active addresses and declining exchange reserves often signal growing investor confidence.
- Funding Rates: Extremely positive funding rates may indicate over-leveraged long positions vulnerable to liquidation.
Additionally, Ethereum’s upcoming network upgrades and continued growth in decentralized finance (DeFi) and layer-2 ecosystems could provide fundamental support for long-term holders.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is a symmetrical triangle pattern?
A: It's a neutral technical formation where price moves between converging support and resistance lines. It usually resolves into a breakout or breakdown, signaling the next directional move.
Q: What does ETH need to break out?
A: Ethereum needs a decisive close above $1,875 with strong volume to confirm bullish momentum. Clearing the symmetrical triangle’s upper trendline is also essential.
Q: Can Ethereum reach $2,000 soon?
A: Yes—if it breaks above $1,875 and maintains bullish momentum. A 17% upside target from current levels aligns with the $2,000 psychological barrier.
Q: What happens if ETH fails to break resistance?
A: A rejection at $1,875 could lead to a retest of support near $1,500, especially if macro conditions deteriorate or risk-off sentiment returns.
Q: How do tariffs affect cryptocurrency markets?
A: Tariffs influence investor sentiment toward risk assets. Escalating trade tensions often cause volatility, while de-escalation (like tariff pauses) can boost market confidence.
Q: Is now a good time to buy Ethereum?
A: It depends on your strategy. Traders may wait for breakout confirmation, while long-term investors might see current levels as a strategic entry point amid consolidation.
Final Outlook
Ethereum stands at a pivotal moment. The symmetrical triangle formation suggests that a major move is imminent—either upward or downward. While macroeconomic factors continue to weigh on sentiment, technical indicators point to growing bullish potential.
The $1,875 resistance level remains the gateway to further gains. A confirmed breakout could unlock a 17% rally toward $2,000, reinforcing Ethereum’s role as a leader in the crypto ecosystem. Conversely, failure to advance may prolong consolidation or trigger another pullback.
As always, prudent risk management and confirmation through volume and price action are essential. Whether you're trading or investing, staying informed and agile is key in today’s dynamic market environment.