Bitcoin’s next halving event is expected within days, reigniting investor debate: Is Bitcoin a “buy” right now, especially after a 15% pullback from its recent all-time high?
The crypto market briefly dipped to nearly $60,000 following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, though prices have since recovered to around $62,700. While this presents a potential entry point, seasoned analysts urge caution—timing matters as much as price.
Let’s explore the current market dynamics, historical patterns around Bitcoin halvings, and key technical signals that could confirm the ideal moment to invest.
The Pre-Halving Pullback: A Familiar Pattern
Bitcoin’s recent dip aligns with a recurring trend observed in previous halving cycles. Historically, BTC experiences strong rallies in the months leading up to a halving, followed by sharp corrections just before the event.
Luke Lango, a respected voice in crypto analysis, highlights this pattern in his latest market update:
“We think this pre-halving crypto crash creates a compelling buying opportunity… but not quite yet.”
Over the past week, only six of the top 100 cryptocurrencies posted gains, reflecting broader market hesitation. This “pre-halving jitter” isn’t new—it played out in both the 2016 and 2020 halving cycles. In each case, Bitcoin surged ahead of the event, corrected sharply near the halving date, then resumed its upward trajectory shortly after.
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This suggests that while the long-term outlook remains bullish, short-term volatility may persist. Investors should prepare for further downside before the next leg up.
What’s the “Buy Signal”? Following the MACD
For tactical investors, timing is everything. One of the most reliable technical indicators for spotting trend reversals is the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence).
Here’s how it works:
- When the MACD line (typically black) crosses above the signal line (typically red), it generates a bullish crossover—a widely recognized buy signal.
- Conversely, when it crosses below, it signals bearish momentum.
Currently, Bitcoin’s MACD shows no such bullish signal. The indicator remains deep in negative territory, with the MACD line angling downward and well below the signal line. This suggests continued short-term weakness.
Luke Lango emphasizes that his “buy” trigger will come when Bitcoin pushes back toward $70,000 and generates a confirmed MACD bullish crossover—the first such signal since early 2024.
Until then, the strategy is simple: wait, but stay ready.
What History Says About Post-Halving Gains
Despite short-term uncertainty, long-term data paints an optimistic picture. Every past Bitcoin halving has been followed by significant price appreciation in the 12 months that followed.
Here’s a look at historical performance:
2011 Halving (Nov 28)
- 365 Days Before: +385%
- 365 Days After: +8,069%
2016 Halving (July 9)
- 365 Days Before: +142%
- 365 Days After: +284%
2020 Halving (May 11)
- 365 Days Before: +17%
- 365 Days After: +559%
These numbers reveal a powerful truth: halvings reduce new supply, creating structural scarcity that historically fuels long-term price growth.
However, there's usually a short-term correction around the actual halving date:
- 2016: -38% drop
- 2020: -20% drop
This “sell-the-news” move occurs as early investors take profits. But in both cases, consolidation lasted only weeks before explosive rallies began—roughly two months post-halving.
Luke notes that altcoins follow a similar rhythm: strong pre-halving momentum, flat performance around the event, then strong gains starting 2–3 months later.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What exactly is the Bitcoin halving?
A: The Bitcoin halving is a programmed event that occurs roughly every four years (every 210,000 blocks). It cuts the block reward given to miners in half, reducing the rate of new Bitcoin creation. This built-in scarcity mechanism is central to Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.
Q: How soon after the halving do prices typically rise?
A: Historically, major rallies begin about 60 to 90 days after the halving. While short-term dips are common, sustained upward momentum tends to build two months later.
Q: Should I buy Bitcoin now or wait for the halving?
A: It depends on your risk tolerance. Buying during a pullback can offer better value, but waiting for confirmation—like a MACD bullish crossover—can improve timing. Many investors use dollar-cost averaging to reduce timing risk.
Q: Does the halving guarantee a price increase?
A: No event guarantees future returns. However, all three prior halvings were followed by substantial bull runs. Market fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions, and adoption trends also play crucial roles.
Q: How does macroeconomic data affect Bitcoin?
A: Bitcoin increasingly correlates with macro trends. Rising bond yields (like the current 10-year Treasury near 4.7%) can pressure risk assets, including crypto. Conversely, expectations of Fed rate cuts tend to boost investor appetite for higher-risk assets like Bitcoin.
The Macro Backdrop: Rising Treasury Yields and Rate Cut Outlook
Beyond crypto-specific factors, broader financial conditions are shifting.
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to nearly 4.7%, driven by strong retail sales data and Middle East tensions. Higher yields impact financial markets in two key ways:
- They increase the discount rate used in valuing future cash flows, pressuring stock and crypto valuations.
- They make “risk-free” government bonds more attractive, pulling capital away from volatile assets.
This de facto tightening could influence Federal Reserve policy. While some experts like Louis Navellier expect coordinated rate cuts with global peers (e.g., ECB) as early as June, others believe cuts won’t come until after the November U.S. election, potentially delaying market relief.
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Final Thoughts: Patience Meets Preparedness
Bitcoin is behaving exactly as it has before past halvings—strong run-up, pre-event pullback, technical weakness signaling short-term caution. But history suggests this phase is temporary.
The combination of:
- A 15% price correction
- Imminent supply shock from the halving
- Strong post-halving performance precedent
…makes Bitcoin highly compelling for patient investors.
Your best move? Monitor for that MACD bullish crossover, ideally accompanied by a push above $70,000. When it happens, it could mark the start of the next major leg higher.
Until then, stay informed, stay ready—and avoid rushing in before the signal confirms.
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