The XRP price has declined over the past two weeks, posting negative closes and an 11% loss. While this dip has sparked concerns, it may actually be setting the stage for a major market move. Currently, XRP is approaching the apex of a seven-month descending triangle pattern—a technical formation often associated with high-impact breakouts. Though the pattern suggests a potential 44% drop to $1.05, market dynamics and on-chain activity hint that a bullish reversal could be more likely. Let’s explore the technical setup, key support levels, and catalysts that could determine XRP’s next major move.
The Descending Triangle: A Bearish Pattern With a Bullish Twist?
Since December 8, 2024, XRP has been consolidating within a well-defined range, forming four equal lows at $1.89 and three progressively lower highs. When connected, these swing points create a classic descending triangle—a bearish continuation pattern typically resolved by a downside breakout.
The projected downside target of $1.05 is calculated by measuring the vertical height of the triangle at its widest point and subtracting it from the breakout level ($1.89). This implies a steep 44% drop if bearish momentum accelerates.
However, technical patterns are probabilistic, not deterministic. A breakout confirmation requires a decisive three-day candlestick close below $1.89, supported by high trading volume. Until that threshold is breached, the pattern remains unconfirmed—and the potential for a false breakdown or bullish reversal remains strong.
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Key Support Zones That Could Halt a Decline
Even if selling pressure intensifies, XRP is unlikely to fall unimpeded. Two critical support zones could trigger strong buying interest:
- $1.89–$2.00: This range has acted as both support and resistance multiple times since late 2024. A break below $1.89 would invalidate this support, but any close above could reignite bullish momentum.
- $1.46–$1.40: This zone aligns with a significant order block formed in late November 2024. Institutional buy orders are often clustered in such areas, making them high-probability reversal points.
Traders watching this range should monitor volume and candlestick patterns closely. A strong bullish engulfing candle or hammer formation near $1.40 could signal accumulation and set the stage for a rally.
Why a Crash May Be Unlikely: On-Chain and Market Signals
Despite the bearish chart pattern, several fundamental and on-chain indicators suggest that a deep crash may not materialize.
Surge in Daily Active Addresses (DAA)
Santiment data reveals a notable spike in XRP’s Daily Active Addresses (DAA), indicating renewed investor engagement during recent price dips. This mirrors a similar DAA surge in March 2025, which preceded a 65% rally after a brief pullback.
Increased network activity often reflects accumulating interest from retail and institutional investors—especially when prices are discounted. If this trend continues, it could fuel demand and counteract downward pressure.
Bitcoin’s Influence on Altcoin Sentiment
Bitcoin’s performance remains a key driver for altcoins like XRP. Recently, BTC retested the $100,000 level—a major psychological and technical support zone. Historical data shows that such levels often act as springboards for recovery, especially in bullish macro cycles.
If Bitcoin stabilizes and resumes its upward trajectory, XRP is likely to follow. A broader market rally could easily override the bearish implications of the descending triangle, turning what looks like a breakdown into a bull trap.
Regulatory Clarity Boosts Confidence
The long-standing uncertainty surrounding the SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit has eased significantly, with recent developments indicating a settlement is more likely than ever—potentially clearing regulatory overhangs by 2026. This improved legal outlook strengthens investor confidence and supports the case for long-term price appreciation.
👉 See how regulatory developments are shaping the future of digital assets.
Bullish vs Bearish Scenarios: What to Watch
Bearish Scenario: Breakdown Confirmed
- Trigger: Three-day close below $1.89 with high volume.
- Target: $1.46 (initial support), then $1.05 (measured move).
- Risk Factors: Weak BTC correlation, rising selling pressure from large holders (whales), negative regulatory headlines.
Bullish Scenario: Fake Breakdown & Rally
- Trigger: Rejection at $1.89 or bounce from $1.40 with rising DAA and volume.
- Target: $2.00 (reclaiming key resistance), then $2.50+ on momentum.
- Catalysts: BTC recovery above $105K, positive Ripple news, increased institutional adoption.
Market participants should monitor order flow, whale movements, and exchange net flows to gauge directional bias.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What does the descending triangle mean for XRP price?
The descending triangle suggests a potential 44% drop to $1.05 if confirmed by a close below $1.89. However, until that happens, the pattern remains speculative—and a bullish breakout is still possible.
What could prevent an XRP crash?
A Bitcoin rebound from $100K, rising daily active addresses, and favorable developments in the SEC vs. Ripple case could all support a recovery instead of a breakdown.
How is the breakout confirmed?
A valid breakdown requires a three-day candlestick close below $1.89 accompanied by high trading volume. Without both conditions, the consolidation may continue or reverse.
Is $1.89 a strong support level?
Yes—$1.89 has been tested multiple times since December 2024 and acts as a key psychological and technical support zone. A sustained break below it would be bearish.
Could XRP rally despite the bearish pattern?
Absolutely. Technical patterns don’t operate in isolation. On-chain activity, market sentiment, and Bitcoin’s trend can all override chart formations—especially near pattern apices where volatility spikes.
What should traders watch next?
Monitor BTC’s price action around $100K, volume on XRP daily candles, DAA trends, and any legal updates from Ripple. These factors will likely determine the breakout direction.
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Final Outlook: Consolidation Before Catalyst?
While the seven-month descending triangle presents a bearish case for XRP, current market conditions suggest that a crash to $1 may not be imminent. Strong support levels, rising network activity, Bitcoin’s resilience, and improving regulatory clarity all tilt the odds toward a bullish resolution.
That said, traders should remain cautious. The apex of any triangle brings heightened volatility—meaning sharp moves in either direction are possible. Risk management, close monitoring of volume and candlestick patterns, and awareness of broader market trends will be crucial in navigating the coming weeks.
For investors, this phase may represent a final accumulation window before the next major move—up or down. Staying informed and agile will be key to capitalizing on whatever comes next in XRP’s evolving narrative.