The cryptocurrency market has long been characterized by cyclical patterns, with price movements following a recognizable rhythm over time. While the landscape continues to mature due to increased institutional participation and regulatory clarity, core market indicators still offer valuable insights into where we stand in the current bull cycle. By analyzing key on-chain, economic, and behavioral metrics, investors can better assess market momentum, identify potential turning points, and make informed decisions.
This article explores seven essential indicators that help determine the progression of the ongoing crypto bull run—highlighting whether we're in the early acceleration phase, mid-cycle expansion, or approaching peak euphoria.
The Four-Year Cycle: A Historical Framework
One of the most widely recognized patterns in the crypto market is the four-year cycle, largely driven by Bitcoin’s halving events. Historically, each cycle begins with a price bottom following a halving, progresses through a period of steady accumulation, and culminates in a speculative peak before a sharp correction.
Past cycles—such as the 2013, 2017, and 2021 rallies—followed this trajectory closely. After each halving, Bitcoin experienced exponential growth within 12 to 18 months, drawing in retail and institutional capital alike. Although the magnitude of gains has varied (over 100x in 2013–2014, ~20x in 2020–2021), the underlying momentum remains consistent.
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While some analysts argue that Bitcoin’s maturation and broader adoption may weaken the rigidity of this cycle, current data suggests we are still operating within its general framework. As of 2025, we appear to be in the mid-to-late phase of a bull market following the April 2024 halving—a period historically marked by accelerating price action and rising investor sentiment.
Price Momentum: Measuring Market Acceleration
Price momentum reflects the speed and strength of upward movement in Bitcoin’s valuation. Strong momentum typically emerges in the middle stages of a bull run when fear of missing out (FOMO) begins to set in.
In previous cycles:
- The 2015–2017 rally saw BTC surge from under $300 to nearly $20,000.
- From late 2020 to late 2021, Bitcoin climbed from around $10,000 to an all-time high near $69,000.
By comparison, the current cycle has delivered a roughly 6x increase from post-halving lows—significant but less explosive than prior peaks. However, slower acceleration doesn’t necessarily signal weakness. It may instead reflect a more sustainable, institutionally supported rally with reduced volatility.
Sustained momentum above key moving averages (like the 200-week MA) and repeated retests of resistance levels suggest that bullish pressure remains intact. This reinforces the view that the market has not yet entered its final parabolic stage.
MVRV Ratio: Is the Market Overvalued?
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio compares Bitcoin’s current market cap to its realized cap—which accounts for the actual cost basis of all coins in circulation. It helps identify whether BTC is trading at a premium (potentially overbought) or discount (undervalued).
Historically:
- An MVRV above 3.5–4.0 has signaled market tops.
- Values below 1.0 often mark cycle bottoms.
Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio sits around 2.6, indicating that while prices are elevated, they haven’t reached extreme overvaluation levels. This suggests there’s still room for further upside before entering the “euphoria” zone.
Moreover, declining peak MVRV values across cycles could reflect growing market efficiency and reduced speculative mania—positive signs for long-term sustainability.
HODL Waves: Tracking Long-Term Holder Behavior
HODL Waves analyze how much of Bitcoin’s supply is being held versus moved on-chain. Specifically, it breaks down coin age bands (e.g., coins last moved 1 day ago vs. over 1 year ago), offering insight into investor behavior.
A key signal occurs when a large portion of long-term holders begin selling—often preceding major corrections. Conversely, high levels of dormant supply indicate strong conviction.
As of now:
- Approximately 54% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has moved within the past year.
- This is below the historical threshold of 60%+, which typically coincides with cycle peaks.
This implies that many long-term holders are still accumulating or holding firm—supporting continued bullish momentum.
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Miner Activity: Profit-Taking Signals
Bitcoin miners play a critical role as natural sellers—they must cover operational costs and often sell newly mined BTC. Their behavior provides early warnings about market tops.
The Miner Cap to Transaction Cost (MCTC) ratio measures miner revenue (block rewards + fees) against their market value. When this ratio exceeds 10, it often indicates excessive profitability and increased selling pressure.
Currently, the MCTC ratio is around 6, well below peak levels seen in previous cycles. This means miners are profitable but not yet in full distribution mode. As long as this metric remains moderate, it supports ongoing accumulation rather than capitulation.
Additionally, low miner reserve drawdowns suggest confidence in future price appreciation.
Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Season
Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) measures BTC’s market cap relative to the total crypto market. It tends to rise during uncertain or bearish periods and decline when capital rotates into altcoins—a phenomenon known as “altseason.”
Currently:
- BTC.D is declining, signaling growing investor appetite for Ethereum, layer-1 platforms, and emerging narratives like AI-blockchain integration and restaking.
- This shift aligns with mid-to-late bull market dynamics, where risk appetite expands beyond Bitcoin.
Furthermore, positive funding rates across major altcoins indicate persistent speculative interest. While recent corrections have cooled leverage slightly, elevated funding suggests the market hasn’t reached irrational exuberance—yet.
Open Interest and Market Speculation
Open Interest (OI) in futures markets reflects the total number of outstanding derivative contracts. Rising OI alongside increasing prices signals fresh capital entering the market—a bullish sign.
Key observations:
- Total crypto derivatives OI recently approached $54 billion, driven by altcoin leverage.
- Despite partial liquidations during pullbacks, OI remains elevated.
- High OI in altcoin perpetual swaps indicates strong speculative positioning.
While surging open interest can amplify volatility during downturns, sustained levels suggest structural demand rather than fleeting speculation.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Are we near the top of the crypto bull market?
A: Not necessarily. With MVRV below 3, miner selling pressure low, and HODL waves below peak thresholds, many indicators suggest we’re in the mid-phase—not the final blow-off top.
Q: What signals should I watch for a market peak?
A: Watch for MVRV > 3.5, HODL wave shifts above 60%, sustained miner selling, collapsing funding rates after spikes, and parabolic Bitcoin price moves with low volume follow-through.
Q: Can the four-year cycle still be trusted?
A: While not perfectly predictive, the cycle framework remains useful. Institutional adoption and macro factors add complexity, but halving-driven supply shocks continue to influence long-term trends.
Q: How important are altcoins in determining cycle stages?
A: Very. A broad altseason usually emerges in the mid-to-late bull phase. Widespread altcoin strength confirms healthy risk appetite and market maturity.
Q: Should I sell now to lock in profits?
A: Timing the top is extremely difficult. Instead, consider rebalancing your portfolio based on risk tolerance and using trailing stops or tiered selling strategies aligned with key indicators.
Q: Is on-chain data reliable for investment decisions?
A: Yes—on-chain metrics like MVRV and HODL waves provide objective insights into supply distribution and holder behavior, complementing technical and macro analysis.
Final Thoughts
The current crypto bull market shows signs of strength without yet reaching unsustainable extremes. Core indicators—including MVRV ratio, HODL waves, miner behavior, open interest, and Bitcoin dominance—are aligned with a mid-cycle expansion phase rather than a late-stage mania.
With institutional inflows accelerating through spot ETFs and global macro conditions gradually improving (e.g., potential rate cuts), the rally could extend into 2025 and beyond.
Investors should remain vigilant—not fearful—monitoring these seven indicators for shifts in trend. By combining data-driven insights with disciplined risk management, you can navigate this dynamic market with greater confidence.
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