Bitcoin is currently trading at a significant discount to its estimated intrinsic value, with fresh data showing institutional demand surging through spot ETFs and on-chain movements signaling strong accumulation. Analysts suggest that despite short-term resistance, the macro setup could propel BTC toward six figures by mid-2025.
Bitcoin’s Intrinsic Value vs. Market Price
According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, Bitcoin is now undervalued by approximately 40% when measured against its "energy value" model. This model calculates BTC’s fair value based on the cost of mining, including electricity, hardware, and operational overhead.
After the April 2024 halving—which reduced block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC—the energy value of Bitcoin has risen to $130,000. Yet, the current market price remains well below this threshold, creating what many see as a compelling buying opportunity.
👉 Discover how market cycles and intrinsic models shape Bitcoin’s next move.
This growing disconnect between price and fundamental value suggests that Bitcoin may be poised for a substantial revaluation, especially as institutional adoption accelerates.
Institutional Demand Fuels $3 Billion ETF Buying Spree
Recent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs highlight a surge in institutional interest. Per insights from Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, investors poured nearly $3 billion into these products over a single week—a clear signal of renewed confidence.
This wave of capital aligns with broader on-chain trends. CryptoQuant data reveals that on April 24, 2024, more than 8,756 BTC (worth roughly $830 million at the time) were withdrawn from Coinbase. Such large-scale withdrawals often precede long-term holding or institutional accumulation, particularly when linked to ETF purchases.
Large exchanges like Coinbase serve as primary on-ramps for regulated financial products. When BTC flows out of these platforms, it typically indicates movement into cold storage or custodial wallets tied to ETFs—meaning the coins are being locked up for the long term.
Exchange Outflows Signal Accumulation
Beyond Coinbase, Binance also experienced major outflows. On April 25, 2025, over 27,750 BTC left the exchange—marking the third-largest withdrawal in Binance’s history, according to Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal.
While exchange outflows don’t guarantee price appreciation, they often correlate with bullish sentiment. When holders move BTC off exchanges, it reduces liquid supply, potentially increasing scarcity during periods of rising demand.
“Large outflows can indicate accumulation phases,” Wedson noted. “However, context matters—regulatory shocks can still override technical patterns.”
He pointed to 2021, when massive withdrawals coincided with China’s crypto crackdown and a subsequent market crash. Conversely, sustained outflows during downturns—such as those seen during the FTX collapse—often mark capitulation and the beginning of recovery.
Thus, while current outflows are encouraging, they must be viewed alongside macroeconomic and regulatory developments.
Fractal Patterns Suggest Potential Break Above $100K
Bitcoin’s recent price action bears a striking resemblance to patterns observed in late 2024. A close look at the daily chart reveals a similar structure: consolidation followed by breakout momentum.
In Q4 2024 (November 5–9), Bitcoin surged 13%, then gained another 15% over the next two days—breaking key resistance levels amid growing institutional interest. The current rally mirrors that trajectory.
Now, in April 2025, BTC has posted an 11% weekly gain, with relative strength index (RSI) levels indicating strong but not yet overbought momentum. Historical parallels suggest a potential 7–10% upside in the coming days—enough to push Bitcoin above $100,000 if buying pressure continues.
👉 Explore how historical patterns influence today’s crypto market dynamics.
Key Similarities in Price Behavior:
- Breakout occurs after a consolidation phase
- Weekend momentum precedes new highs
- RSI shows increasing buying pressure
- ETF inflows amplify retail and institutional participation
However, one critical difference exists: resistance near $96,100. Unlike late 2024, when Bitcoin entered a price-discovery phase with minimal overhead resistance, today’s market faces a psychological and technical barrier just below six figures.
Whether this level holds or breaks will likely depend on continued ETF demand and broader market sentiment.
Core Keywords Driving Market Sentiment
Understanding Bitcoin’s current trajectory requires familiarity with several key concepts:
- Bitcoin intrinsic value
- Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows
- Exchange outflows
- Bitcoin fractal patterns
- Post-halving price behavior
- Institutional adoption
- On-chain analysis
- Bitcoin price prediction 2025
These terms not only reflect investor focus but also align with search trends as traders seek data-driven insights into BTC’s next move.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What does it mean when Bitcoin is "undervalued by 40%"?
It means that based on fundamental models—like mining cost or energy expenditure—the fair value of Bitcoin is significantly higher than its current market price. A 40% discount implies strong upside potential if price converges with intrinsic value.
Why are spot Bitcoin ETFs important?
Spot ETFs allow traditional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without holding it directly. Large inflows signal institutional trust and provide a regulated gateway for pension funds, hedge funds, and retail investors.
Do exchange outflows always lead to price increases?
Not necessarily. While outflows often indicate accumulation, external factors like regulatory crackdowns or macroeconomic shocks can still trigger sell-offs. Context is crucial.
What are fractal patterns in Bitcoin trading?
Fractals are repeating price structures across different timeframes. Traders use them to anticipate future moves based on historical behavior. A similar pattern in 2024 led to rapid gains—now traders watch for a repeat.
Could Bitcoin really hit $100,000 in April 2025?
Based on current momentum, ETF demand, and historical patterns, it's plausible. However, resistance near $96,100 must be overcome, and sustained buying pressure is needed.
Is now a good time to invest in Bitcoin?
Every investment carries risk. While fundamentals appear strong—discounted valuation, rising institutional demand, and favorable technicals—investors should conduct independent research and consider their risk tolerance before entering the market.
👉 Learn how to analyze market cycles before making your next crypto move.
Final Thoughts: A Convergence of Fundamentals and Momentum
Bitcoin’s current position reflects a rare alignment of undervaluation, institutional inflows, and bullish technical patterns. With spot ETFs absorbing billions in weekly demand and on-chain data showing aggressive accumulation, the foundation for a major price move appears solid.
While no model guarantees future performance, the combination of energy-based valuation models, exchange dynamics, and fractal repetition offers a compelling narrative: Bitcoin may be entering its next major growth phase.
As always, market participants should remain vigilant—monitoring both technical signals and external risks—while recognizing that long-term value creation in crypto often favors patience over prediction.