Bitcoin Surges 10% to $109,000 After Alphractal Founder's Prediction

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Bitcoin has surged 10% to reach $109,000, reigniting investor interest and market speculation. This sharp climb follows a precise forecast by Joao Wedson, founder of cryptocurrency analytics firm Alphractal. His recent market analysis has proven remarkably accurate, as Bitcoin rallied exactly $10,000 in the days following his published insights—validating his technical framework and drawing attention from traders worldwide.

A Strategic Market Move Confirmed

Wedson’s analysis centered on Bitcoin’s re-accumulation and distribution patterns, which he shared just ten days before the price surge. He identified a critical support level just below $99,000, based on the Short-Term Holders Realized Price (STHRP) metric—a key on-chain indicator that reflects the average price at which coins held for less than 155 days were last moved.

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This data-driven approach allowed Wedson to pinpoint the reversal zone with exceptional precision. The subsequent breakout confirmed the strength of this accumulation phase, pushing Bitcoin from $99,000 to its current $109,000 valuation within a short timeframe.

Near-Term Targets and Liquidity Zones

According to Wedson, the next key resistance lies around $113,000—a level marked by high liquidity concentration. This zone is historically significant because it represents a price point where numerous stop-loss orders and leveraged positions are clustered. Such areas often trigger rapid price movements due to automated trading mechanisms.

Wedson warns that this region may act as a bull trap, where an initial surge lures in optimistic traders before a sudden reversal occurs. A bull trap could be followed by another bear trap, creating a volatile cycle that tests market sentiment before the next decisive move.

“Markets are not driven by hope—they’re shaped by structure, behavior, and liquidity,” Wedson noted in his latest commentary. “We’re seeing textbook price action unfold.”

His prediction outlines a potential pattern: a final upward leg expected to peak around early September, followed by an extended period of consolidation. This horizontal market phase would allow for deeper accumulation before any future macro breakout.

Understanding Bear and Bull Traps

To fully grasp Wedson’s outlook, it’s essential to understand what bear and bull traps are—and how they influence trading psychology.

June 22 was identified by Wedson as a confirmed bear trap—an early signal that downward momentum was exhausted. Now, with bullish momentum resuming, the risk of a bull trap increases as more traders jump in late.

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This cyclical behavior is common in mature financial markets but is amplified in crypto due to high leverage and speculative trading volumes.

Risk Management in Volatile Conditions

One of Wedson’s strongest messages is not about profit-taking—but risk management. With the optimal entry point for long positions now likely behind us, he advises investors to shift focus:

His stance reflects a disciplined, institutional-grade mindset—valuable in a market where emotional trading often leads to losses.

What This Means for Bitcoin’s Broader Outlook

Despite short-term volatility, Wedson maintains a bullish medium-term outlook for Bitcoin. The current price action aligns with historical post-halving cycles, where extended rallies occur 6–12 months after the block reward reduction.

Key factors supporting sustained upward pressure include:

These elements suggest that while corrections are inevitable, the underlying demand remains robust.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Did Joao Wedson predict Bitcoin’s rise to $109,000?
A: Yes. Using on-chain metrics like the Short-Term Holders Realized Price, Wedson identified a bottom near $99,000 and anticipated a rally. His analysis preceded the 10% surge by ten days.

Q: What is a bull trap in cryptocurrency?
A: A bull trap occurs when prices rise sharply, suggesting a new uptrend, only to reverse suddenly—causing traders who bought the breakout to incur losses.

Q: Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
A: According to Wedson, the ideal entry window has passed. With Bitcoin near key resistance at $113,000, current conditions favor risk management over new entries.

Q: What is the significance of the $113,000 level?
A: It represents a major liquidity zone where many leveraged positions are concentrated. A test of this level could trigger heightened volatility or a bull trap scenario.

Q: What happens after September according to Wedson’s forecast?
A: He expects a final upward push through early September, followed by an extended sideways (horizontal) market phase for consolidation.

Q: How reliable is on-chain data like STHRP?
A: Very reliable. Short-Term Holders Realized Price reflects actual cost basis of recent buyers and is widely used by analysts to identify support levels during corrections.

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Final Thoughts

The recent 10% surge in Bitcoin to $109,000 underscores the growing influence of data-driven analysis in digital asset markets. Joao Wedson’s accurate call—based on re-accumulation patterns and STHRP validation—demonstrates how structured methodologies outperform speculative guesswork.

While excitement builds toward the $113,000 target, investors are reminded that markets rarely move in straight lines. Cycles of traps, reversals, and consolidations are part of Bitcoin’s maturation process.

For those navigating this landscape, success will depend not on timing the top—but on managing risk, recognizing patterns, and staying ahead with reliable intelligence.

As we approach the pivotal months ahead, one thing is clear: Bitcoin’s journey remains as dynamic as ever—but with tools and insights like those from Alphractal, traders can move forward with greater confidence.