The debate between Bitcoin and gold has never been more relevant—especially amid shifting U.S. economic policies, rising geopolitical tensions, and growing concerns over inflation and national debt. In a recent in-depth discussion with financial analyst Jordi Visser, key insights emerged about how macroeconomic forces under a potential Trump administration could reshape investment strategies.
From tariffs and tax reforms to Federal Reserve dynamics and market psychology, this analysis dives into what investors should watch—and where assets like Bitcoin, gold, and equities may head next.
Understanding the Trump Administration’s Economic Agenda
There’s no denying that Donald Trump’s proposed economic policies have injected a new level of uncertainty into global markets. With aggressive tariff proposals, sweeping tax reform plans, and direct confrontations with the Federal Reserve, the financial world is grappling with what these moves mean for long-term stability.
Jordi Visser, an experienced investor and founder of VisserLabs, believes there is a coherent strategy behind the apparent chaos—though its execution remains highly unpredictable.
"The biggest confusion in the market right now is whether there's actually a plan—and if so, what it is," Visser notes. "But I believe the administration is reacting to a real crisis: unsustainable debt levels."
With $9 trillion in U.S. debt maturing in 2025 alone and federal deficits projected to grow by $1.8–$2 trillion annually, the pressure to generate revenue has never been higher.
👉 Discover how top investors are positioning themselves amid economic uncertainty.
Tariffs: Revenue Tool or Negotiation Tactic?
One of the most controversial elements of Trump’s policy framework is his aggressive use of tariffs. Critics argue they hurt consumers and trigger trade wars; supporters see them as essential leverage.
Visser offers a nuanced view: tariffs are both a fiscal tool and a negotiation tactic.
- As a revenue generator, tariffs function as a form of indirect taxation—shifting money from the private sector to the public one to help manage growing deficits.
- As a bargaining chip, they follow Trump’s long-standing playbook from The Art of the Deal: apply maximum pressure to force concessions.
For example:
- A 200% tariff on European wines may not be intended to last—but it grabs attention and opens doors for dialogue.
- Similarly, threats of 50% tariffs on steel or aluminum signal seriousness in trade rebalancing.
Ray Dalio has warned that without bold action, the U.S. risks entering a “debt death spiral.” Tariffs, while disruptive, are one way to buy time while broader structural reforms take shape.
But there’s a cost: increased consumer prices, supply chain disruptions, and short-term market volatility.
Tax Reform: Helping the Rich or Redistributing Wealth?
A common narrative portrays Trump’s tax policies as favoring the wealthy. However, recent proposals suggest a more complex picture.
Under discussion is a plan to eliminate federal income tax for households earning under $150,000 per year—a move that would benefit approximately 110 million American families (85–90% of all households).
This isn’t just populism—it’s a targeted approach to address wealth inequality without directly raising taxes on high earners, which could stifle investment and consumption.
Visser explains:
"The top 20% of earners drive a significant portion of GDP through consumption. Raising their taxes too aggressively could backfire. Instead, tariffs act as a stealth tax on luxury goods and imported items—effectively increasing the burden on higher-income groups."
So while the policy appears progressive in outcome, it avoids traditional wealth redistribution mechanisms that might dampen economic growth.
Are We Headed for Recession?
Market corrections of around 10% in recent weeks have sparked fears of an impending recession. But Visser argues the fundamentals don’t support that scenario—yet.
Key points:
- A true recession typically involves losing about 1.5% of jobs (~2.5 million), sustained over 1–2 years.
- Current unemployment remains low, and labor shortages persist due to aging populations and tighter immigration policies.
- Private credit markets are not over-leveraged compared to stock valuations—reducing systemic risk.
- Artificial intelligence is boosting productivity, helping companies maintain margins even during slower growth.
Still, investor sentiment is fragile. Consumer confidence indices are well below expectations, driven partly by perceptions of unequal wealth distribution and economic insecurity.
As Visser puts it:
"People aren’t just investing—they’re holding onto hope. When markets fall, that hope gets shaken."
And when hope fades, spending slows—creating a self-reinforcing cycle of economic softness.
FAQ: Addressing Key Investor Concerns
Q: Is a 10% market drop something to worry about?
A: Not necessarily. Historically, markets experience intra-year declines of 14–15% on average. A 10% correction is within normal range—especially when driven by policy uncertainty rather than fundamental deterioration.
Q: Could tariff wars trigger a global recession?
A: Unlikely in the short term. While trade tensions increase costs and reduce corporate earnings visibility, they haven’t yet led to credit crunches or mass layoffs—the hallmarks of recessions.
Q: Why are hedge funds de-risking so rapidly?
A: Many rely on historical data models that can’t account for unprecedented events like NATO instability or 19th-century-level tariffs. When models fail, risk managers pull back—amplifying volatility.
Q: What happens if Treasury auctions fail?
A: That would be a crisis. If investors refuse to buy U.S. debt at acceptable rates, the government may be forced to monetize debt (i.e., print money)—potentially triggering hyperinflation.
Q: How does AI affect job security and inflation?
A: AI boosts productivity, which helps control inflation. But it also threatens certain white-collar jobs, creating social tension—even as overall employment stays strong.
Bitcoin vs Gold: Which Hedge Wins?
Amid rising uncertainty, both gold and Bitcoin are seeing increased demand—but for different reasons.
Gold: The Traditional Safe Haven
- Central banks worldwide are buying gold at record rates.
- It thrives during periods of monetary instability and geopolitical risk.
- Older investors trust its centuries-long track record.
- Recent price surges (toward $3,000/oz) reflect fears over currency devaluation.
But Visser sees gold as “an older generation’s game.” Its momentum may slow as digital alternatives gain traction.
Bitcoin: Digital Gold with Wings
Anthony Pompliano famously calls Bitcoin “gold with wings”—more volatile, but capable of far greater returns.
In the past year:
- Gold rose ~50%
- Bitcoin surged ~100%
Why?
- Bitcoin reacts strongly to macro signals: money supply changes, regulatory shifts, and institutional adoption.
- Younger investors in countries like Nigeria, Brazil, and Argentina prefer Bitcoin—it’s borderless, digital-native, and resistant to censorship.
- Tech-linked sentiment means Bitcoin often moves with Nasdaq—though this also increases volatility.
Visser believes:
"Once the Nasdaq rebounds, Bitcoin will outperform gold."
He expects both assets to rise if policymakers resort to quantitative easing or acknowledge insurmountable debt through implicit monetization.
👉 Learn how smart investors diversify across digital and traditional assets.
Fed vs Trump: The Battle Over Interest Rates
Tensions between Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are escalating. Trump wants lower rates to ease debt servicing; Powell resists, citing persistent inflation.
Recent data shows:
- Core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred measure) running above 3% annualized.
- Short-term inflation expectations exceeding long-term ones—a rare inversion suggesting near-term pressure.
- Political divide: Democrats expect inflation to rise; Republicans believe it’s falling.
Without clear signs of labor market weakness, Powell has little reason to cut rates—even as political pressure mounts.
This standoff adds another layer of uncertainty for investors navigating asset allocation decisions.
Final Outlook: Where Do We Go From Here?
Despite short-term turbulence, Visser remains optimistic:
- No recession is imminent.
- Corporate earnings remain resilient.
- Productivity gains from AI provide a buffer.
- Policy adjustments—while chaotic—are aimed at solving real problems.
That said:
- Debt sustainability remains the elephant in the room.
- Market confidence hinges on credible long-term plans.
- Digital assets like Bitcoin are increasingly seen as part of the solution—not just speculation.
As global financial systems evolve, traditional hedges like gold will coexist with modern ones like Bitcoin. The winners will be those who understand both—and position accordingly.
Final Thoughts & Actionable Insight
While headlines scream doom, the reality is more nuanced. Economic transitions are rarely smooth—but they create opportunities for informed investors.
Whether you're watching gold break psychological barriers at $3,000/oz or tracking Bitcoin’s rebound potential post-correction, staying grounded in fundamentals—not fear—is key.
And as policy shifts accelerate under new leadership, one thing is clear: diversification across asset classes, generations, and technologies will define success in 2025 and beyond.