Ethereum (ETH) is approaching one of the most significant milestones in its derivatives market history. On June 25, a record-breaking options expiry looms over the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, with nearly $1.5 billion of the $3.3 billion in open interest (OI) set to expire. Over 638,000 ETH options contracts fall within the June expiry window—representing 45% of total open interest—marking it as the largest single expiry event in Ethereum’s history.
This milestone underscores growing institutional and retail interest in ETH derivatives, even as the price trades around $2,270—a level 47.61% below its May 12 all-time high of $4,362. While the sheer volume of open interest reflects strong market participation, the positioning suggests bearish dominance persists.
👉 Discover how market sentiment shifts during major crypto expiries
Market Structure and Sentiment Ahead of Expiry
According to Luuk Strijers, Chief Commercial Officer at Deribit, the put-to-call ratio for June expiries stands at 0.79. This indicates more call options remain open than puts—typically a bullish signal. However, much of this call volume is concentrated far above current price levels, particularly around the $3,200 strike.
Robbie Liu, analyst at OKEx’s market insights team, explains:
“Despite higher call open interest, the fact that most of these options are out-of-the-money suggests bearish control. The largest concentration of open interest sits at $3,200 calls—well above current trading ranges.”
This structural imbalance means many bullish bets are unlikely to be profitable at expiry. Conversely, the maximum pain price—the price at which the greatest number of options expire worthless—is estimated at $1,920. Given that ETH is currently trading above $2,200, a drop below $1,920 would require a sharp 14% decline, which appears unlikely barring extreme macro shocks.
Still, history reminds us not to rule out volatility. May 19—the infamous "Black Wednesday" in crypto circles—saw brutal liquidations across both Bitcoin and Ethereum markets. As seasoned traders know, leverage and sentiment can shift overnight.
Strijers notes that rising open interest reflects deeper market maturity:
“As our OI pool grows, each expiry becomes a more significant liquidity and risk transfer event—creating a virtuous cycle of increased participation.”
Even though the dollar value of ETH options has declined due to falling spot prices, contract-based OI has remained stable. This resilience signals enduring demand for hedging and speculation tools despite price corrections.
Institutional Interest Grows via CME Ethereum Futures
The rise in institutional appetite for Ethereum derivatives is further validated by data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which launched ETH futures on February 8. On its first trading day, volume exceeded $30 million.
According to Richard Delany, senior analyst at OKEx Insights:
“CME’s launch of ETH futures signals strong support from the world’s leading derivatives exchange. It’s clearly attracting substantial institutional interest in the second-largest crypto asset.”
While CME’s BTC futures debuted in December 2017 during a bearish phase—providing institutions early access to Bitcoin exposure—the context for ETH futures is markedly different. Today, institutional familiarity with digital assets has grown significantly since 2018.
CME reported an average daily volume (ADV) of 5,895 ETH futures contracts in May, with average open interest at 3,082 contracts—equivalent to $6.86 million in notional value. The record single-day trading volume occurred on May 19 with 11,980 contracts ($26.5 million), while open interest peaked on June 1 at 3,977 contracts (~$8.82 million).
Large Open Interest Holders (LOIH)—traders holding at least 25 contracts (1,250 ETH or ~$2.7 million)—reached a high of 45 on May 25, up from a monthly average of 37. Despite this growth, Strijers notes limitations:
“CME has achieved about $400 million in ETH OI. But without yield incentives or broader product offerings, growth remains somewhat capped.”
Currently, CME offers only Bitcoin and Micro Bitcoin futures, Bitcoin options, and Ethereum futures. There are no plans to introduce Ethereum options at this time.
👉 Explore how institutional futures impact crypto markets
BTC-ETH Correlation: Divergence and Recovery
The correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum fluctuated significantly in recent months. In early May, it dipped below 0.6—indicating relatively independent price action—after hovering between 0.7 and 0.8 in April. By early June, however, the correlation surged back to 0.9 and has remained elevated.
Despite BTC’s rebound to $41,000—driven partly by El Salvador adopting Bitcoin as legal tender—ETH showed muted momentum, trading narrowly between $2,400 and $2,500. Since June 7, the ETH/BTC pair has declined by 20%, highlighting weaker relative strength.
Liu observes:
“ETH’s recovery momentum has lagged behind BTC’s. Historically, ETH tends to peak about a month after BTC tops out—as seen in early 2018—followed by a prolonged correction in the ETH/BTC ratio before reversal.”
Currently, BTC hovers near $35,500 (down ~6% in 24 hours), pulling ETH along with it into the $2,200 range. This dynamic reinforces the idea that Ethereum often follows Bitcoin’s lead in major trend shifts.
Lower Gas Fees Bring Relief to Users
One positive development for Ethereum in June has been a significant drop in network congestion and gas fees. On June 1, transaction costs hit a six-month low—offering welcome relief to users and decentralized finance (DeFi) participants.
This improvement follows the Berlin hard fork on April 13, an upgrade designed to optimize gas efficiency across transactions and smart contracts.
Liu elaborates:
“Persistently high gas fees in March and April pushed capital toward EVM-compatible chains like Binance Smart Chain (BSC), fueling TVL growth there. During mid-May’s sell-off, gas spiked above 1,000 gwei, accelerating migration to Layer-2 solutions like Polygon.”
While lower fees may reflect reduced network activity rather than fundamental scalability breakthroughs, they still provide breathing room for developers and retail users navigating volatile markets.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is options expiry in crypto?
A: Options expiry refers to the date when derivative contracts lose their validity. Traders must exercise or settle them before this date; otherwise, they expire worthless if out-of-the-money.
Q: Why is a large options expiry important for Ethereum?
A: Large expiries can influence short-term price movements due to dealer hedging unwinds and shifts in market sentiment. They also reflect growing maturity in crypto derivatives markets.
Q: What does "maximum pain price" mean?
A: It's the price at which the highest number of options contracts expire worthless, minimizing profits for option buyers and maximizing gains for sellers.
Q: How do CME futures affect Ethereum's price?
A: CME futures bring regulated exposure for institutions, increasing legitimacy and long-term demand—even if short-term price impact is limited.
Q: Is low gas fee good for Ethereum?
A: Yes—for users and DeFi apps. Lower fees improve user experience and reduce barriers to entry, though sustained low fees may also indicate reduced network activity.
Q: Can Ethereum recover its bullish momentum?
A: Recovery is possible if BTC stabilizes and macro conditions improve. Historically, ETH takes longer than BTC to rebound after corrections but often delivers strong upside once momentum shifts.
As Ethereum navigates this record-setting expiry cycle under bearish pressure, all eyes will be on how derivatives flows interact with on-chain fundamentals and broader market trends. With institutional adoption rising and network costs easing, the foundation remains strong—even amid short-term headwinds.