Non-Farm Payroll Event Could Trigger Market Surge: Bitcoin Nears $105K, Ethereum Aims for $3,000

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The cryptocurrency market is entering a pivotal phase as macroeconomic indicators and technological advancements converge to shape the next leg of price action. With Bitcoin hovering around $105,000 and Ethereum pushing toward the $3,000 mark, investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic despite recent volatility. Key catalysts—from U.S. employment data to protocol-level upgrades and global regulatory shifts—are setting the stage for potential breakout momentum in mid-2025.

Bitcoin Faces Volatility Ahead of Critical Employment Data

Bitcoin experienced a 1.67% fluctuation on Thursday, June 5, struggling to maintain support above $105,000 amid rising market uncertainty fueled by escalating trade tensions. While institutional outflows contributed to short-term pressure, the broader trend remains bullish. According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin reached an intramonth high of $111,970 on May 22 before pulling back—a correction that analysts view as healthy within an ongoing uptrend.

👉 Discover how macro events like job reports can unlock crypto's next big move.

Bitfinex analysts note that despite the pullback, overall investor sentiment remains positive. The "Fear & Greed Index" currently sits in "greed" territory, signaling strong market confidence. This resilience suggests that short-term fluctuations are being absorbed by long-term holders and institutional participants.

All eyes are now on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly employment report, scheduled for release on June 6. This data point is particularly significant because it directly influences Federal Reserve rate decisions—key drivers of risk appetite across financial markets, including digital assets.

If the non-farm payroll figures come in below expectations, it could reinforce speculation of delayed rate hikes or even rate cuts later in the year. Such a scenario would likely boost demand for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Analysts project that sustained institutional buying combined with dovish macro signals could propel Bitcoin toward $115,000 by early July.

“In a bullish case, strong institutional interest and continued ETF inflows may push Bitcoin to $115,000 or higher by early July,” a Bitfinex analyst told Cointelegraph.

Ethereum Gains Momentum on Layer 1 Innovation

Ethereum surged 4% from a strong support level near $2,590, driven by renewed institutional accumulation and whale activity. This buildup suggests growing anticipation for a potential breakout, especially if key technical upgrades materialize as planned.

At the heart of this optimism is Vitalik Buterin’s newly outlined roadmap aimed at enhancing Ethereum’s Layer 1 scalability. The goal? To reduce reliance on Layer 2 solutions—such as rollups and sidechains—by significantly boosting the base chain’s throughput and efficiency.

Buterin hinted at these plans during his keynote at ETHGlobal Prague, where he proposed increasing Layer 1 capacity by up to 10x through innovations like proto-danksharding and advanced state management techniques. If successful, this shift could redefine Ethereum’s role in decentralized finance (DeFi), smart contracts, and autonomous systems.

Lennix Lai, Chief Business Officer at OKX, believes these developments could be a game-changer for ETH’s price trajectory. “If Vitalik succeeds in reducing Ethereum’s dependence on Layer 2s, we could see ETH easily surpass $3,000,” Lai stated.

Currently trading near $2,600 in Asian morning sessions, Ethereum shows strong underlying demand. On OKX, Ethereum perpetual contracts accounted for 44.2% of total trading volume over the past seven days—indicating that professional traders are closely watching this transition.

👉 See how Layer 1 advancements are reshaping Ethereum’s future value.

While near-term price movements will still react to macro factors like the European Central Bank’s rate decision and U.S. employment data, the long-term outlook hinges on whether Buterin’s vision can be executed effectively.

South Korea Embraces Crypto-Friendly Policies Under New Leadership

Political changes in South Korea are adding another layer of bullish momentum. Despite leadership transitions, the country’s pro-crypto stance appears unchanged. Hashed CEO Kwon Hyung-joon confirmed that digital assets have become a central policy issue, with both major parties recognizing their electoral importance.

With 16.29 million daily active crypto traders—surpassing the 14.24 million active stock market participants—policymakers cannot afford to ignore the sector. The incoming administration of President Lee Jae-myung is expected to maintain current supportive frameworks, including plans to implement capital gains taxation on crypto by 2027.

Stablecoin regulation is also gaining traction. Although the Korean won is tightly controlled, limiting immediate prospects for a won-backed stablecoin, policymakers recognize the broader utility of stablecoins beyond payments—as foundational layers for smart contract ecosystems and decentralized economies.

Kwon emphasized that while domestic stablecoin issuance may offer limited benefits due to South Korea’s advanced payment infrastructure, global integration remains a priority. He also highlighted the government’s focus on AI investment, particularly in “physical AI”—specialized artificial intelligence applications in semiconductors and electronics manufacturing, where South Korea holds a competitive edge.

“I believe the new government sees our unfair advantage in physical AI ecosystems—that’s where I’m most excited,” Kwon said.

Circle’s IPO Marks Milestone for Stablecoin Ecosystem

In a landmark development for the digital asset space, Circle successfully priced its initial public offering (IPO) at $31 per share—above the projected range of $24–$26. The company raised approximately $1.1 billion, achieving a valuation of around $6.9 billion. Trading under the ticker CRCL on the New York Stock Exchange, this marks a major comeback after Circle’s failed SPAC listing attempt in 2021.

As the issuer of USDC—one of the largest regulated stablecoins—Circle’s public debut comes at a time when U.S. regulators are moving toward clearer digital asset frameworks. The IPO is expected to bolster investor confidence in regulated crypto-native firms and may encourage further institutional adoption.

U.S. Regulatory Landscape in Flux

Congress is currently debating the Digital Asset Market Structure Act, a Republican-led effort to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. Proponents argue it will prevent technological capital from fleeing to jurisdictions like Europe and Asia by providing legal clarity.

Democrats, however, have raised concerns about consumer protection, calling the bill too complex and rushed. Some lawmakers have also questioned potential conflicts of interest involving former President Trump’s personal crypto ventures. For bipartisan support, Democrats insist on stronger transparency and oversight provisions—elements Republicans largely dismiss as political obstruction.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What impact does the U.S. non-farm payroll report have on Bitcoin?
A: The report influences Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions. Weak job data may delay rate hikes, increasing liquidity and boosting investor appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Q: Why is Ethereum’s Layer 1 upgrade important?
A: Enhancing Layer 1 scalability reduces dependency on secondary networks (Layer 2s), potentially lowering fees, improving security, and increasing adoption across DeFi and dApps.

Q: Can Ethereum reach $3,000 in 2025?
A: Yes—analysts believe that successful implementation of Vitalik Buterin’s scalability roadmap, combined with institutional inflows, could drive ETH past $3,000.

Q: How does South Korea’s crypto policy affect global markets?
A: As a major trading hub with high retail participation, South Korea’s regulatory direction often sets trends and influences investor sentiment across Asia.

Q: What does Circle’s IPO mean for USDC and stablecoins?
A: It validates the role of regulated stablecoins in mainstream finance and may accelerate regulatory clarity and institutional integration of digital dollar equivalents.

Q: Is Bitcoin still bullish after pulling back from $111K?
A: Yes—the correction aligns with healthy market behavior. With ETF inflows and macro tailwinds possible, upside potential remains strong toward $115K.

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Core Keywords:

With macroeconomic catalysts aligning with foundational technological progress, the path forward for digital assets looks increasingly robust. Whether driven by data surprises or protocol breakthroughs, the second half of 2025 could witness transformative shifts across the crypto landscape.