The fourth Bitcoin halving took place on April 20, 2025, at block height 840,000, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Four months have now passed—a milestone historically associated with bullish momentum—but Bitcoin’s price has failed to rise. In fact, it has delivered the weakest post-halving performance in its history, sparking widespread debate about whether the long-standing “halving rally” narrative still holds true.
👉 Discover why experts are rethinking Bitcoin's price triggers after this historic underperformance.
The Weakest Post-Halving Rally on Record
Historically, Bitcoin has gained value within four months of each halving event. This pattern helped cement the belief that reduced supply leads to upward price pressure. However, the 2025 halving has broken that trend dramatically:
- 2012 (First Halving): Price rose from $12.35 to $86.18 — a staggering +579% gain over four months.
- 2016 (Second Halving): Increased from $638.19 to $720.97 — a modest but positive +11.12%.
- 2020 (Third Halving): Grew from $8,566.77 to $10,402.66 — a solid +21.4% increase.
- 2025 (Fourth Halving): Fell from $63,825.87 to $58,530 — a notable -8.3% decline.
While Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the $61,000 mark by mid-August, it remains significantly below its halving-day price. This marks the first time in Bitcoin’s history that the asset has ended lower four months after a supply squeeze event designed to create scarcity.
This anomaly challenges conventional wisdom and forces investors to reconsider the role of macroeconomic and network-level factors beyond simple supply reduction.
Why Is Bitcoin Underperforming This Cycle?
Several structural and market-driven factors may explain Bitcoin’s sluggish performance despite the halving.
Declining Treasury Liquidity Squeezes Market Flow
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, argues that shrinking U.S. Treasury bill issuance has reduced global dollar liquidity—directly impacting risk assets like Bitcoin. In a recent blog post titled "Water, Water Everywhere," Hayes explained:
"The net reduction in T-bills has removed liquidity from the financial system. From April through July, as short-term government debt was withdrawn from circulation, Bitcoin traded sideways but experienced multiple sharp sell-offs."
With fewer safe-haven instruments available for institutional cash parking, capital flows into crypto have weakened. Additionally, tighter monetary conditions and delayed rate cut expectations in major economies have increased funding costs, making leveraged crypto positions less attractive.
Miners Under Pressure: Selling to Survive
Another critical pressure point lies within Bitcoin’s mining ecosystem. After the halving, miner revenue was cut in half overnight—yet operational costs remained unchanged or even increased due to rising electricity prices and higher network difficulty.
According to data from CryptoQuant, miner wallets have lost nearly $9.1 billion worth of BTC since the April halving. This massive outflow indicates that many miners are selling reserves to cover expenses—a bearish signal for market sentiment.
Alkimiya, a blockchain market protocol team, highlighted this issue on social media:
"Bitcoin miners are in a tough spot! The price of BTC is down, mining difficulty is up, and they're selling coins to cover costs. This could have consequences for transaction fees."
As miners offload holdings, selling pressure intensifies. If prices remain low, weaker mining operations may shut down entirely, potentially affecting network security unless transaction fees rise to compensate.
👉 See how top traders are adjusting strategies amid shifting miner behavior and market volatility.
Core Keywords Integration
Throughout this analysis, key themes emerge that align with current search intent around Bitcoin’s performance:
- Bitcoin halving 2025
- BTC price prediction
- Bitcoin mining profitability
- Post-halving performance
- Crypto market trends
- Miner outflow impact
- Bitcoin supply scarcity
- Cryptocurrency investment strategy
These terms naturally appear across technical discussions, investor forums, and financial media—reflecting growing interest in understanding whether historical patterns still apply in today’s evolved crypto landscape.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Does the Bitcoin halving always lead to a price increase?
A: Historically, yes—but not immediately or guaranteed. Previous cycles saw gains within 6–18 months post-halving. However, short-term fundamentals like liquidity, regulation, and macroeconomic conditions can delay or override expected rallies.
Q: Why did Bitcoin drop after the 2025 halving?
A: Multiple factors contributed: reduced Treasury bill supply limiting liquidity, ongoing miner sell-offs due to squeezed profits, and broader risk-off sentiment in global markets due to interest rate uncertainty.
Q: Are miner outflows a reliable bearish indicator?
A: Yes, sustained miner selling often signals financial stress within the network. When miners liquidate BTC to cover costs, it adds consistent downward pressure on price—especially during periods of low demand.
Q: Could transaction fees rise if miners leave the network?
A: Potentially. If mining becomes unprofitable at scale, fewer participants could slow confirmation times. To maintain security and attract miners back, users may need to pay higher fees—shifting revenue from block rewards to fee-based incentives.
Q: Is Bitcoin still a good long-term investment after this weak performance?
A: Many analysts still believe so. The halving reduces new supply permanently, reinforcing scarcity. While short-term volatility is normal, long-term holders often view such dips as accumulation opportunities before potential future rallies.
Q: How long do previous bull runs take to start after a halving?
A: On average, significant upward momentum began between 6 and 12 months post-halving. For example, the 2016 rally gained traction around November; in 2020, major gains started in late 2020 and peaked in 2021. Patience may still be warranted.
What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin?
Despite the disappointing four-month performance, some indicators suggest potential for recovery later in the cycle.
On-chain metrics such as long-term holder accumulation and declining exchange reserves hint at underlying strength. Moreover, growing institutional interest—especially around spot Bitcoin ETFs—and potential regulatory clarity could reignite demand.
Additionally, historical patterns show that while immediate post-halving returns have been negative this time, the strongest gains typically come 12–18 months later. Investors who bought after previous halvings—and held—still realized substantial profits over time.
👉 Explore real-time data and expert insights to time your next move with confidence.
Final Thoughts
The myth of an automatic post-halving rally may be fading—but not because scarcity no longer matters. Rather, it underscores that Bitcoin now operates within a complex global financial ecosystem where macro forces often outweigh internal mechanics.
The 2025 halving didn’t trigger an instant surge, but it did permanently reduce inflationary pressure on BTC supply—now lower than gold’s annual dilution rate. Combined with increasing adoption and technological maturity, these fundamentals support long-term optimism.
For now, investors should focus less on short-term price action and more on structural trends: miner health, liquidity cycles, and on-chain behavior. These signals offer deeper insight than any single event—even one as symbolic as the halving.
As the market evolves, so must our understanding of what drives value in digital assets. The halving isn’t dead—it’s just maturing alongside the asset class itself.