The past week marked a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s (BTC) price trajectory, characterized by strong momentum, technical breakthroughs, and subdued volatility despite significant gains. From May 5 to May 12 (Hong Kong time), BTC surged from $94,700 to $104,800—an impressive 10.7% increase—while Ethereum (ETH) posted an even more dramatic rise of 39.2%, climbing from $1,825 to $2,540. This surge not only validated key resistance levels but also signaled a potential shift into the final phase of the ongoing bull cycle that began in September 2024.
👉 Discover how market momentum is shaping the next leg of the crypto rally.
Market Performance and Price Dynamics
Bitcoin’s ascent above the psychologically critical $100,000 mark occurred with surprising ease. The market had initially targeted the $99,000–$100,000 resistance zone, but once breached, prices advanced smoothly into the $101,000–$110,000 range without encountering significant pushback. This orderly rise reflects strong underlying structure rather than speculative frenzy.
Despite the notable 10.7% weekly gain, actual volatility remained low. High-frequency realized volatility hovered around 37, indicating controlled price movement. This stability can be attributed to counterbalancing forces at play: on one side, profit-taking and hedging from long gamma positions created consistent selling pressure on rallies; on the other, strong demand supported continued upward momentum.
Over the past month, BTC has climbed nearly 40% from its $74,000–$75,000 lows, reinforcing the view that we are entering the latter stages of the current bull market. While short-term consolidation is expected within the $92,000–$106,000 range, further upside extension remains possible. Our base outlook continues to favor higher prices, with targets of $115,000–$125,000 over the coming months. Technically speaking, given the strength of this move, a stretch toward $130,000–$135,000 cannot be ruled out if momentum sustains.
Broader Market Themes
Traditional financial markets remained relatively calm during the week. Despite the Federal Reserve reiterating it is “not急于 cutting rates,” market expectations still price in 2–3 rate cuts over the next 12 months. This divergence highlights persistent investor optimism about future monetary easing.
Geopolitical trade developments also made headlines. On Monday, unexpected tariff reductions between the U.S. and China—reportedly cutting rates by 115%—brought a swift end to a week-long negotiation period. Additionally, a U.S.-UK trade agreement was finalized over the weekend. These developments helped reverse earlier equity sell-offs linked to trade tensions and partially reversed pricing related to concerns over U.S. economic slowdown. As a result, the S&P 500 has nearly recovered to its年初 levels.
In crypto markets, renewed bullish sentiment in equities combined with BTC’s decisive break above $100,000 reignited interest in altcoins. Ethereum stood out as a leader in this rotation, exhibiting classic altcoin behavior with its near-40% weekly surge. This rally led to widespread liquidation of structured short positions across derivatives markets.
Notably, unlike BTC, ETH did not see substantial inflows into spot ETFs. Instead, Bitcoin continued to attract steady institutional demand through ETF channels. While the altcoin rally triggered short-term fear of a market rotation, the dominance of Bitcoin as the primary driver of crypto markets remains intact. The movement in smaller-cap coins appears more like a tactical repositioning or short squeeze rather than a fundamental shift in market leadership.
👉 Explore how institutional flows are influencing Bitcoin's dominance.
BTC Implied Volatility: Suppressed Despite Price Gains
One of the most striking features of last week’s action was the lack of expansion in implied volatility (IV), even as BTC approached $106,000. Despite large absolute price moves, IV failed to rise significantly due to weak speculative demand.
Tactical call spreads were the primary source of call-side buying interest, while both wings of the options market faced persistent selling pressure. At higher price levels, traders used covered call strategies to reduce delta exposure. Simultaneously, others sold put options to collect premium income amid expectations of continued stability.
Looking ahead, unless a major catalyst triggers a sharp breakout or sell-off, we expect implied volatility to remain under pressure. The term structure is already steep, with June and July IV declining at a rate of 1–1.5 points per week. This rolling decay makes holding long-dated volatility positions increasingly challenging—even though absolute IV levels remain relatively low.
Skew and Kurtosis: Sentiment Normalizes After Breakout
At the start of the week, skew spiked sharply higher as BTC approached and crossed $100,000. Traders feared an explosive breakout through the $99,000–$100,000 resistance zone, driving demand for upside protection.
However, as price action unfolded in an orderly fashion—supported by visible profit-taking and long gamma hedging—sentiment quickly stabilized. The absence of parabolic moves discouraged extreme bullish bets and encouraged more traders to sell upside calls. As a result, skew gradually normalized and ended the week near neutral levels.
Kurtosis remained suppressed throughout the week due to sustained selling pressure on both tails of the distribution. Most directional trades were executed via call spreads rather than outright long calls or puts, leading to a net sale of kurtosis (i.e., reduced tail risk premium). With BTC now appearing range-bound between $94,000 and $106,000—a zone similar to February’s consolidation—the relative value of out-of-range strikes may be attractive.
From a pricing perspective, current kurtosis levels appear too low given potential event risks ahead. Holding options with strikes outside this range could offer favorable risk-reward in case of another breakout.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Why did Bitcoin’s price rise so smoothly despite breaking key resistance?
A: The orderly ascent was supported by strong market structure, including profit-taking from early longs and gamma hedging by large holders. These mechanisms provided natural resistance on rallies while allowing sustained momentum.
Q: Is low volatility sustainable if Bitcoin keeps rising?
A: In the short term, yes—especially if institutional buying remains steady and speculative leverage stays moderate. However, any sharp acceleration or macro shock could trigger a volatility expansion.
Q: What does Ethereum’s outperformance mean for altcoins?
A: ETH’s 39% weekly gain reflects renewed risk appetite and short-covering pressure. While positive for altcoin sentiment, it doesn’t signal a lasting shift away from Bitcoin dominance unless sustained ETF inflows or on-chain catalysts emerge.
Q: Why isn’t implied volatility rising with price?
A: Weak speculative demand and active selling of both calls and puts are suppressing IV. Traders are using structured products like call spreads instead of outright long volatility positions.
Q: Could Bitcoin reach $135,000?
A: While our base target is $115,000–$125,000 over the next few months, a move toward $135,000 is possible if momentum holds and macro conditions remain supportive.
Q: Should I buy options now with low volatility?
A: With IV low and term structure rolling down, long volatility positions face headwinds. However, out-of-the-money options outside the $94K–$106K range may offer asymmetric upside if another breakout occurs.
👉 Learn how to navigate low-volatility environments with strategic trading setups.
Core Keywords:
Bitcoin price analysis
BTC volatility
Ethereum surge
Crypto market outlook
Implied volatility crypto
Bitcoin resistance levels
Altcoin season signals
BTC ETF inflows